Nuggets vs. Cavaliers: ATS Prediction for December 5th

Denver Nuggets (11-8 SU, 7-11 ATS) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (19-3 SU, 16-6 ATS)

When: Thursday, December 5th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, OH, Cleveland

TV: NBA

Point Spread: Den +3.5/Cle -3.5

Total: 237.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets +144/-170

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Calf
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Cavaliers

• Ty Jerome (Questionable) Illness
• Max Strus (Out) Ankle

At 7:00 ET, the Cleveland Cavaliers (-170) will host the Denver Nuggets (+144) in a non-conference matchup. Cleveland is currently favored by 3.5 points and has won two straight games. The over/under line for this game is 237.5.

This game will be played at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland and can be seen on NBA TV. The Cavaliers (19-3) are currently the top team in the Eastern Conference, while the Nuggets (11-8) are 8th in the Western Conference.

Recent Form

Denver improved to 11-8 on the season with a 119-115 win over the Warriors on Tuesday. Playing at home, the Nuggets were favored by 5 points but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 234, just under the 236.5 O/U line.

A key moment in the game was a 12-0 run by Denver, which turned the score from 54-44 to 56-54. The Nuggets led 90-85 going into the 4th quarter, and while they were outscored 30-29 in the final period, they held on for the win.

The Cavaliers improved to 19-3 on the season with a dominant 118-87 win over the Wizards on Tuesday. Cleveland, who were favored by 16.5 points, covered the spread with a +31 margin. The total points for the game were 205, well under the 234.5 O/U line.

Cleveland took control early, jumping out to a 35-20 lead in the 1st quarter. A 10-0 run stretched their lead from 40-28 to 50-28, and they finished strong, outscoring Washington 32-20 in the 4th quarter.

The Historicals

Over the last five head-to-head meetings, the Nuggets have averaged 118 points per game compared to 111 for Cleveland. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Denver. A combined average of 229 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 5-0.

Analysis

Nikola Jokić’s 15-point 4th quarter propelled the Nuggets to a 119-115 win over the Warriors, finishing with 38 points, ten rebounds, and six assists. Jokić shot 58.3% from the field, hitting three threes at a 75% rate. Aaron Gordon also connected on three threes at 75%, contributing 15 points and nine rebounds.

Denver shot 50.6% from the field, making 11 threes at a 45.8% clip. Michael Porter Jr. added 22 points, with nine coming in the 3rd quarter. Jokić added 9 in the 3rd and another 15 in the final period.

Defensively, the Nuggets gave up 115 points but managed to hold the Warriors to 46% shooting in their win. Denver allowed 31 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters but tightened up in the 2nd, giving up just 26 points.

From beyond the arc, the Nuggets limited Golden State to 12 made threes on 31% shooting. Denver also sent the Warriors to the line 21 times, where they made 15 free throws. The Nuggets finished with nine steals and five blocks.

Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell each scored 19 points in the Cavaliers’ win over the Wizards, with Mobley adding ten rebounds and shooting 50% from the field. Mitchell hit four threes at a 50% rate, while Sam Merrill also connected on four threes, finishing with 14 points and six assists.

The Cavs made 16 threes as a team, shooting 34.8% from beyond the arc and 48.3% overall. Mobley scored 11 of his points in the 1st quarter, while Mitchell added 8 points in the 4th.

The Cavaliers put on a defensive clinic against the Wizards, allowing just 87 points in their win on Tuesday. Cleveland gave up 20 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters, with 22 in the 2nd and 25 in the 3rd.

They held Washington to 38% shooting, including just 4 made threes on 15% shooting from deep. The Wizards went 19/25 from the free-throw line. Cleveland also recorded 11 steals and four blocks.

Betting Trends

• Although Denver has a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten road games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 4-6. The team averaged 113 points per game in these games.
• Across their three previous home games, Cleveland has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 110 points per game.
• The Nuggets have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Cavaliers have a straight-up record of 8-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 6-4.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

After a couple of rough games vs the Hawks, the Cavs have bounced right back with wins over the Celtics and Wizards. They wrap up this 3-game home stand with a matchup against the Nuggets, in which they are favored by -3.5. As for the Nuggets, they are looking to finally find some consistency, as they’ve been bouncing back between wins and losses of late. However, they did just beat the Warriors on Tuesday. Yet, I see Cleveland taking this one tonight while also covering the spread. I’m going Cavs -3.5.