Denver Nuggets (38-20 SU, 30-27 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (32-25 SU, 25-31 ATS)

When: Thursday, February 27th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Den -3/Mil +3

Total: 240

Money Line: Denver Nuggets -147/+124

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Calf
• Jamal Murray (Probable) Knee
• Vlatko Čančar (Out) Knee
• Peyton Watson (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Calf
• Bobby Portis (Out) Suspension
• Pat Connaughton (Out) Calf

At 8:00 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks (+124) will host the Denver Nuggets (-147) in a non-conference matchup. The Nuggets (-3) are 38-20 and 3rd in the Western Conference, while the Bucks are 32-25 and 5th in the East.

This game will be played at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee and can be seen on TNT. The over/under line for this game is 240 points.

Recent Form

Denver improved to 38-20 after a 125-116 win over the Pacers on Monday. The Nuggets, who were -3.5 point favorites, covered the spread with the victory. The game’s total of 241 points fell short of the 246.5-point O/U line.

Denver jumped out to a 36-28 lead after the 1st quarter, and while the Pacers edged them 30-28 in the 2nd, the Nuggets took control with a 36-25 3rd quarter. Heading into the 4th with a 100-83 lead, Denver held on despite being outscored 33-25 in the final period.

The Bucks dropped to 32-25 on the season after a 100-97 road loss to the Rockets on Tuesday. Milwaukee entered the game as +2.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total score of 197 points fell well short of the 228-point over/under line.

Milwaukee went on a 10-0 run early, extending their lead from 30-24 to 40-24. However, after winning the 2nd quarter 34-27, they were outscored 28-26 in the 3rd and 15-12 in the 4th, with the game tied at 85 heading into the final period.

The Historicals

The Nuggets have had the better record vs the spread over the last five games, going 4-1. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 8 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 1-4, with the teams combining for an average of 220 points per game.

Analysis

Aaron Gordon led the Nuggets with 25 points in their win over the Pacers, scoring 12 in the opening quarter. Michael Porter Jr. added 19 points, and Nikola Jokić contributed 18 points and 19 assists, with 10 of his points coming in the 3rd quarter.

Christian Braun also had a strong 4th quarter, scoring 10 of his 17 points late in the game. The Nuggets shot 56.4% from the field but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just eight threes at a 38.1% rate.

Defensively, the Nuggets gave up 116 points to the Pacers but managed to secure the win. They allowed 28 points in the 1st quarter and 30 in the 2nd. The 3rd quarter was their best, holding Indiana to 25 points, but they gave up 33 in the 4th.

Denver held the Pacers to 47% shooting overall and 32% from three, with Indiana making 14 threes. The Nuggets sent the Pacers to the line 27 times, where they made 22 free throws. Denver finished with 32 defensive rebounds, allowing eight offensive boards, and added eight steals and four blocks.

In their 100-97 loss to the Rockets, the Bucks struggled offensively, shooting just 40% from the field. Their three-point shooting was below average, hitting 12 threes at a 32.4% rate.

Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 27 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 52.9%. Damian Lillard added 22 points, making four threes at 36.4%, while Brook Lopez and AJ Green each contributed 12 points.

Despite a strong defensive effort, the Bucks couldn’t pull off the win against the Rockets, giving up 100 points. Milwaukee’s defense tightened up in the 4th quarter, allowing just 15 points, but it wasn’t enough to secure the victory.

The Bucks held the Rockets to 40% shooting from the field and 34% from three, with Houston hitting 12 threes. Milwaukee also sent the Rockets to the line 18 times, where they made 14 free throws. The Bucks recorded 11 steals and five blocks in the game.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Denver has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 118 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
• Although Milwaukee has a straight-up record of 4-6 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 2-8. The team averaged 109 points per game in these games.
• As the betting underdog, the Bucks have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups their straight-up record was 3-2.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Nuggets have gone 7-3 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 9-1.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

After getting blown out vs the Lakers, the Nuggets bounced back with a nice win over the Pacers. And the Bucks had their 4-game winning streak snapped by the Rockets in a game that saw them struggle down the stretch. Milwaukee is starting to open things up for Giannis in terms of his minutes restriction, but they are still vulnerable to scoring droughts without him on the floor. Typically, Bobby Portis would be an offensive spark plug during this time, but he will be out for a while due to suspension. I think getting Denver at -3 is a steal, as Milwaukee still has yet to prove it can beat the league’s best teams this year. I got Denver to cover.