Rockets vs. Nuggets: Point Spread Analysis and Prediction 3/23/25

Denver Nuggets (44-27 SU, 33-37 ATS) vs. Houston Rockets (46-25 SU, 39-32 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 23rd, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Toyota Center, TX, Houston

TV: SCHN

Point Spread: Den +7.5/Hou -7.5

Total: 227.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets +228/-278

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Calf/Ankle
• Nikola Jokić (Out) Ankle
• Jamal Murray (Probable) Ankle
• Christian Braun (Probable) Foot
• Julian Strawther (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Rockets

• Reed Sheppard (Out) Thumb

At 7:00 ET, the Nuggets (44-27) will be in Houston to take on the Rockets (46-25). Houston is currently favored by 7.5 points and has won nine straight games. The over/under line for this Western Conference matchup is 227.5.

This game will be televised on SCHN and will be played at the Toyota Center. Denver is 3rd in the Western Conference, while Houston is 2nd. The Nuggets have lost two straight games and are +228 on the moneyline, while the Rockets are -278.

Recent Form

Denver’s record dropped to 44-27 after a 128-109 loss to the Trail Blazers on Friday. The Nuggets, who were -2 point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total score of 237 points exceeded the O/U line of 226.5 by 10.5 points.

After a 10-0 run by Portland early on, Denver fought back and led 59-54 at halftime. However, the Nuggets were outscored 34-23 in the 3rd quarter and 40-27 in the 4th, as Portland pulled away late.

The Rockets improved to 46-25 this season with a 102-98 win over the Heat on Friday. Houston was favored by 4.5 points but didn’t cover the spread, and the game’s total points of 200 fell short of the 212.5 O/U line.

Houston trailed 59-51 at halftime but turned things around in the second half. They outscored Miami 27-21 in the 3rd quarter and 24-18 in the 4th to secure the win.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Houston has an ATS record of 4-0-1 in the previous five matchups vs Denver. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +8 points per game in favor of the Rockets. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-3. Combined, they averaged 222 points in these games.

Analysis

Aaron Gordon led the Nuggets with 23 points in Friday’s loss to the Trail Blazers, scoring 9 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters. Russell Westbrook added 18 points, including 9 in the 2nd quarter, while Michael Porter Jr. contributed 17 points, 8 of which came in the 4th.

As a team, the Nuggets shot 50% from the field, but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just nine threes at a 34.6% rate. Porter made three threes, shooting 42.9% from deep.

Defensively, the Nuggets had a strong 2nd quarter but struggled in the 3rd and 4th, giving up 34 and 40 points, respectively, in a 128-109 loss to the Trail Blazers. Denver allowed Portland to shoot 54% from the field.

The Nuggets also gave up 14 threes on 40% shooting from deep and sent the Blazers to the line 25 times, where they hit 20 free throws. Denver recorded 10 steals and two blocks.

Fred VanVleet was on fire in the Rockets’ win over the Heat, hitting nine threes at an 81.8% clip and finishing with 37 points, including 13 in the 4th quarter. He shot 76.5% from the field overall. Amen Thompson added 18 points, with eight coming in the final period.

As a team, Houston connected on 14 threes, shooting 50% from beyond the arc and 46.4% overall. Dillon Brooks and Jabari Smith each contributed 11 points, with Brooks scoring 6 in the opening quarter.

Despite a shaky start defensively, the Rockets tightened up in the 2nd half, allowing just 39 points to the Heat to secure the win. Houston gave up 32 points in the 2nd quarter but responded by holding Miami to 21 points in the 3rd and just 18 in the 4th.

The Rockets sent the Heat to the line 14 times, where they made 12 free throws. Houston also limited Miami’s damage from beyond the arc, allowing 10 threes on 41% shooting. The Rockets finished with 17 steals and four blocks.

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road games, Denver has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 2-3 while averaging 114 points per game.
• Across their last three home contests, Houston has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0, while averaging 109 points per game.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Nuggets have a straight-up record of 4-6. But, their mark vs. the spread was just 4-6.
• Although the Rockets have a strong straight-up record in their last three games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs. the spread going 1-2.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Without Jokic, the Rockets are the heavy favorites vs Denver tonight. The Nuggets have dropped two straight, and have not look good in both of these games. I think Houston really looks to make a statement and create even more separation between themselves and the Nuggets for the race for the two seed in the West. I like Houston to cover.