Nuggets at Magic: Expert NBA Betting Picks for Jan. 19

Denver Nuggets (25-16 SU, 20-20 ATS) vs. Orlando Magic (23-20 SU, 23-20 ATS)

When: Sunday, January 19th, 6:00 PM (ET)

Where: Kia Center, FL, Orlando

TV: ALT

Point Spread: Den -6.5/Orl +6.5

Total: 222

Money Line: Denver Nuggets -247/+204

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Probable) Injury Management
• Nikola Jokic (Probable) Elbow
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Magic

• Gary Harris (Out) Hamstring
• Moritz Wagner (Out) Knee
• Goga Bitadze (Out) Concussion
• Franz Wagner (Out) Conditioning
• Jalen Suggs (Out) Lower Back
• Jett Howard (Questionable) Ankle

The Orlando Magic will host the Denver Nuggets in a non-conference matchup at the Kia Center. The Magic are currently on a two-game losing streak and sit 7th in the Eastern Conference, while the Nuggets are 4th in the Western Conference.

Denver is favored by 6.5 points and has a moneyline of -247. The over/under line is set at 222 points. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:00 ET and the game can be seen on ALT.

Recent Form

Denver improved to 25-16 on the season with a 133-113 win over Miami on Friday. The Nuggets, favored by 3 points, covered the spread with the 20-point victory. The combined score of 246 points went over the 228.5-point line by 17.5 points.

Denver led 30-24 after the 1st quarter and extended their lead by outscoring Miami 37-31 in the 2nd quarter. The teams played to a 31-31 tie in the 3rd, but the Nuggets pulled away in the 4th, outscoring the Heat 35-27.

The Magic fell to 23-20 on the season after a 121-94 road loss to the Celtics on Friday. Orlando entered the game as +14.5 point underdogs but failed to cover the spread, losing by 27 points.

Orlando trailed 35-28 after the 1st quarter and 66-54 at halftime. The Celtics extended their lead to 96-76 by the end of the 3rd quarter, and the Magic managed just 18 points in the 4th. The game’s total points of 215 narrowly exceeded the O/U line of 213.5.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Magic hold the edge at 5-0. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 1 point per game. The over-under record in these same games is 4-1, with the teams combining for an average of 233 points per game.

Analysis

The Nuggets put up 133 points in their win over the Heat, shooting 54.3% from the field and hitting 16 threes at a 48.5% clip. Jamal Murray led the way with 30 points, adding 11 in the 2nd quarter alone.

Nikola Jokic contributed 24 points, 12 of which came in the 3rd quarter, and Aaron Gordon added 16 points, with 10 in the 2nd. Julian Strawther also had a big 4th quarter, scoring 11 of his 14 points in the final period.

Even with a strong defensive effort from beyond the arc, the Nuggets gave up 113 points to the Heat, who shot 49% from the field. Denver allowed 31 points in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters but limited Miami to 27 points in the 4th to help secure the win.

The Nuggets excelled in defending the three, holding the Heat to just 9 made threes on 27% shooting. Denver also kept Miami off the free-throw line, where they went 14/14. The Nuggets recorded 34 defensive rebounds, allowing six offensive boards, and added five steals.

In their 121-94 loss to the Celtics, the Magic struggled offensively, shooting just 41.5% from the field and hitting only five threes at a 15.6% clip. Cole Anthony led the way with 23 points, scoring 11 in the 2nd quarter, and added seven rebounds.

Paolo Banchero contributed 21 points, with nine coming in the 1st quarter, while Wendell Carter added 15 points and nine boards. Anthony Black chipped in 13 points, scoring 4 in the final period.

The Magic struggled defensively against the Celtics, giving up 121 points on 52% shooting. Orlando allowed 35 points in the 1st quarter and 31 in the 2nd, with Boston scoring at least 30 points in each of the first three quarters.

From beyond the arc, the Celtics hit 17 threes at a 45% clip. The Magic sent Boston to the line 22 times, where they made 20 free throws. Orlando finished with 25 defensive rebounds, gave up 11 offensive boards, and recorded three steals and three blocks.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Denver has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 3-0. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0 while averaging 121 points per game.
• Across the Magic’s last five home games, the team averaged 98 points per game while allowing 107. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 2-3 while going 2-3 straight-up.
• As the betting underdog, the Magic have an ATS mark of just 2-3 in their last five games. Orlando posted a straight-up mark of 1-4 in these matchups.
• The Nuggets have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 5-0 straight up and 5-0 against the spread.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Nuggets just crushed the Heat on Friday and have a chance to take on a severely depleted Magic team. Orlando always plays hard, but I see Denver rolling all over them on Sunday. Look for Denver to win and cover at -6.5.