New York Knicks vs. Golden State Warriors Pick
New York Knicks (10-30 SU, 18-21-1 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (26-14 SU, 16-24 ATS)
When: Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 10:30 PM ET
Where: Oracle Arena – Oakland, CA
TV: SPORTSNET / MSG
By: Keith Franks, NBA Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: NYK +18 / GS -18 (MyBookie)
Total: 230
Power Rankings: Golden State -15
Takeaways From New York and Golden State’s Most Recent Games
The Knicks enter in poor overall form as they have won just one game in their last ten outings. That victory came on January 4th in the City of Angels against the Los Angeles Lakers when the Knicks pulled the upset as a 5.5-point underdog. Most recently, the Knicks were defeated 111-101 on the road by the Portland Trailblazers when the two met in Rip City, last night. Though New York lost the game they produced their third consecutive cover as an 11-point underdog.
The Warriors enter in off a 127-123 victory over the Sacramento Kings on Saturday where they failed to cover for their second straight outing as a 7.5-point favorite. Overall, Golden State has been in good form as they have gone 3-1 SU in their previous four outings. On the contrary, the Warriors have been a liability against the spread as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten contests.
How the Public is Betting the New York-Golden State Game
Currently, 54% of the betting public are on-board with the Warriors spotting the heavy lumber to the Knicks. You can discuss this at our forum. From the open of this market, we have seen the line move by up to a point upward in some books with Golden State initially opening as a 17-point favorite.
The Historicals
The New York-Golden State series has been one that has been dominated by the Warriors as of late as they have won the last nine contests between both parties. The two teams last met in October in the Big Apple where the W’s marched onto a 128-100 victory over the Knickerbockers easily covering as a 12-point favorite.
Injury Concerns
There are no recent storylines or prevailing injuries for either team. It has been well documented that the Knicks will be without star Forward Kristaps Porzingis until mid-February while the Warriors standout Center Demarcus Cousins is due back in early February as he recovers from a torn ACL.
New York Will Play Responsible Basketball To Stay Competitive
Given the perceived contrast in quality between these two teams, the Knicks do not have many advantages to exploit in this contest. However, the Knicks do have two distinct edges that can make them more competitive than the line would suggest. First, the Knickerbockers commit less turnovers compared their counterparts. Secondly, New York gets more mileage out of its bench as they get 43.5 points per game out of their bench compared to Golden State who get just 29.5. This 14-point swing will be essential for the Knicks to utilize if they want this game to last four quarters.
Golden State Will Use Contest To Show Why They Are The Best Shooters In the NBA
The Warriors reputation as a stellar shooting team precedes them as they continue to own the best field goal percentage (48.4%) in the NBA as well as the third-best three-point field goal percentage (38.4%) in the league which makes them a scary match-up for New York who sit 28th in the NBA in opponent field goal percentage (47.7%). The Warriors are averaging 116.6 points per game which places them third overall in that category. Another outside variable that swings in Golden State’s favor is free throw shooting as the Warriors are the second-best in the NBA as they 82.4% of their attempts from the charity stripe.
Betting Trends
Outside of Golden State’s dominance in this series, the most notable trend concerning these two franchises is New York being 6-13 ATS in the last 19 meetings. In addition, the Under is 5-2 ATS in the previous seven matches on the Warriors’ court.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: New York +18
A common theme found among basement-dwelling teams such as the Knicks (who sit dead last in the Atlantic Division) is taking advantage of lofty point spreads in games against perceived superior opponents (such as the two-time defending NBA champions here) as there is no other way to entice action on New York. It is for this reason we have seen New York bolster a far better ATS record compared to their actual win and loss record this season. On the contrary, teams like Golden State are often on the opposite end of this narrative as they are frequently overvalued and as a result have operated at a significant loss all season against the spread while they have the second best record in the Western Conference. When Golden State’s recent supremacy in this series is tossed into the mix along with the fact the Knicks are 6-18 SU on the road while the Warriors are 15-6 SU at home, the propensity for the Warriors to be overvalued is that much greater. However, the fact remains that the amount of points that the Warriors are laying here is ludicrous with respect to the fact that New York’s bench play gives them a huge edge to come in under this inflated number. However, even if Golden State were to have its way here there is a strong possibility that the W’s will call off the dogs early which affords New York the chance to produce a backdoor cover.
