New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets Free Pick for 11/6/23

New Orleans Pelicans (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS)

When: Monday, November 6th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: ALT

Point Spread: NO +6/Den -6

Total: 223.5

Money Line: New Orleans Pelicans +206/-254

Notable Injuries

Pelicans

• CJ McCollum (Out) Lung
• Naji Marshall (Out) Knee
• Trey Murphy III (Out) Knee
• Jose Alvarado (Out) Ankle

Nuggets

• Jamal Murray (Out) Hamstring
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee

Recent Form

The Pelicans head into today’s action with an overall record of 4-2 and have gone 2-1 over their previous three games. On the road, the Pelicans have gone 2-0 so far this season compared to their 2-2 mark at home.

In today’s game against the Pelicans, the Nuggets aim to continue their success with a record above .500, currently at 6-1. So far, Denver has been perfect when playing at home, with a 4-0 record, while their record on the road is 2-1.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Pelicans have averaged 113 points per game compared to 110 for Denver. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for New Orleans. A combined average of 223 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

In terms of their offensive performance, the Pelicans average 108.2 points per game, ranking 23rd in the NBA. Additionally, they have 98.5 possessions per game (14th) and 24.8 free throw attempts per game (10th).

New Orleans’ defense comes into the game ranking 24th in the NBA for blocked shots per game with an average of 5.3. Additionally, the Pelicans rank 13th in the league for points allowed per game with 111 and 5th in the NBA for field goal percentage allowed at 44.3.

On offense, Denver is currently ranked 24th in free throw attempts per game, 23rd in possessions per game, and 13th in points per game in the NBA. This season, they have averaged 17 free throw attempts, 97.1 possessions, and 114.6 points per game.

Denver’s comes into the game with an average of 8.4 steals per game, placing them 11th in the league. Additionally, they allow an average of 104.7 points per game, ranking them 5th in the league, and 20.6 free throw attempts per game, ranking them 9th in the league.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past ten road matchups, New Orleans has an ATS record of 6-4 while averaging 113 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
• Across their three previous home games, Denver has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 2-1 while averaging 108 points per game.
• Through their last five games as the underdog, the Pelicans have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight-up mark of 3-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Nuggets have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 2-1.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

In a big slate of NBA games tonight, one of my favorite bets is to take the Pelicans at +6. Both teams will be without some key players in CJ McCollumn and Jamal Murray. But look for the Pelicans to make things interesting. I’m taking the Pelicans at +6.