New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks Point Spread Bet for Jan 13

New Orleans Pelicans (23-16 SU, 22-17 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (23-16 SU, 22-17 ATS)

When: Saturday, January 13th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: BSSW

Point Spread: NO +2.5/Dal -2.5 

Total: 229

Money Line: New Orleans Pelicans +116/-139

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Notable Injuries

Pelicans

• Matt Ryan (Out) Elbow

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (Out) Heel
• Maxi Kleber (Questionable) Toe
• Luka Doncic (Out) Ankle
• Grant Williams (Probable) Ankle
• Josh Green (Questionable) Illness
• Dereck Lively II (Questionable) Ankle

The Dallas Mavericks (-139) host the New Orleans Pelicans (+116) in a Southwest Division matchup. The Mavericks are favored by 2.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 229. This game will tip-off at 8:30 ET at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.

Both teams have identical 23-16 records and are currently in playoff position in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are 7th in the West, while the Mavericks are 6th. This game can be seen on BSSW.

Recent Form

This season, the Pelicans have an overall record of 23-16, which has them in 7th place in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, they are 7-2 compared to 16-14 against other Western Conference teams.

As the away team, the Pelicans are 11-8 straight up and 10-9 against the spread. Their average scoring differential on the road is +4.2 PPG. Today, they are 2.5-point underdogs and have an average scoring differential of +0.8 PPG in their 18 games as the underdog.

Against the spread, the Pelicans are 11-7 as the underdog and 11-10 overall. They have covered the spread in their last three games as the underdog.

New Orleans’ O/U record for the season is 19-20, and the over has hit in their last two games. This year, 20 of their games have had lower over/under lines than 229.

In their most recent game, the Pelicans lost to the Nuggets by a score of 125-113. They were 5.5-point underdogs going into the game, and the combined scoring finished 238, going over the O/U line of 230.

At home this season, the Mavericks have an average scoring margin of +5.2 points per game. However, they are just 12-8 straight up at home and 10-10 ATS. Overall, Dallas is 23-16 and is currently in 1st place in the Southwest Division.

Dallas has been the favorite in 24 of their 39 games this season and has a record of 17-7 in those games. Their average scoring margin as the favorite is +6.1 PPG, and they have gone 15-9 ATS as the favorite.

On the other hand, the Mavericks have an average scoring differential of -1.8 PPG on the road, but they are 11-8 straight up. As the underdog, Dallas has gone 6-9 straight up and 7-8 ATS. They have covered the spread in their last 5 games as the underdog.

Dallas’ last game was a 128-124 win over the Knicks. They were 5-point underdogs going into the game, and their ATS win improved their record vs. the spread to 22-17. The game’s total of 252 points was higher than the O/U line of 234.5.

The Historicals

Through the last five matchups between the teams, Dallas has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 0 points per game separates the teams. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 236 points per game.

Analysis

This season, the Pelicans have been one of the top shooting teams in the NBA. They are 7th in field goal percentage at 48% and 5th in three-point shooting at 38%. However, they are just 21st in three-point makes per game.

When it comes to scoring, New Orleans is 11th in the league at 116.4 points per game. On the road, they are averaging 117.3 points per game compared to 115.5 at home.

So far, the Pelicans have outscored the NBA scoring average in 51.3% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 19th in the league at 98.5 possessions per game.

In the current season, the Pelicans defense has excelled, sitting 9th in the NBA by allowing 111.8 points per game. New Orleans’ defense is currently forcing 12.8 turnovers per game, which is 14th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 19th in blocked shots, with an average of 4.9 rejections per game.

At home, the Mavericks are averaging 121.1 points per game (8th) compared to 116.4 on the road (12th). Overall, they are 7th in the NBA with 118.8 points per game.

Dallas is one of the league’s top three-point shooting teams, ranking 2nd in both three-point attempts and makes. However, they are just 15th in three-point shooting percentage at 37%.

So far this season, the Mavericks have outscored the NBA scoring average in 59% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 9th in the league at 100.1 possessions per game.

So far, the Mavericks’ defense is ranked 19th in the league at 117.1 points per contest. The Dallas defense has allowed opponents to shoot 36.4% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 48.0% of their field goal attempts vs. Dallas.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, New Orleans has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 129 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Dallas has an ATS record of 6-4 while averaging 112 per game. The team went 5-5 overall in these games.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Pelicans have a straight-up record of 6-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 7-3.
• The Mavericks have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Despite playing on the road, I’m taking the Nuggets to pick up the win and cover the spread over a Mavs team that is without Luka Doncic. I got New Orleans at +2.5.

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