NBA Predictions: Thunder vs. Nuggets – Who’s Got the Juice in This Season Opener?

Oklahoma City Thunder (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

When: Thursday, October 24th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: TNT

Betting Odds

• Point Spread: OKC +2.5/Den -2.5
• Total: 225.5
• Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder +115/-137

Notable Injuries

Thunder

• Isaiah Hartenstein (Out) Hand
• Kenrich Williams (Out) Knee
• Jaylin Williams (Out) Hamstring
• Nikola Topic (Out) Knee

Nuggets

• DaRon Holmes II (Out) Achilles

Game Overview

At 10:00 ET, the Oklahoma City Thunder (+115) will take on the Denver Nuggets (-137) at Ball Arena in Denver. The Nuggets are favored by 2.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 225.5.

Last year, the Thunder were 1st in the Western Conference and 1st in the Northwest Division. The Nuggets were 2nd in the Western Conference and 2nd in the Northwest Division.

Recent Form

Oklahoma City enters the season ranked 7th in our power rankings, with a 96.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 59.2% chance of winning the Northwest Division. Last season, the Thunder finished 57-25, placing 1st in both the Western Conference and their division. They were dominant at home, going 33-8 with a +13.0 scoring margin, and had a 24-17 road record.

Denver enters the season ranked 5th in our power rankings, with an 83.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 21.6% chance of winning the Northwest Division. Last season, the Nuggets finished 2nd in the Western Conference with a 57-25 record, going 33-19 in conference play. They were 10-6 in division games, placing 2nd in the Northwest.

The Historicals

In their last five head-to-head matchups, the Thunder and Nuggets have played competitive games, with an average margin of victory of just 0 points per game. Oklahoma City has gone 3-2 ATS, with these games averaging 214 points per contest, resulting in a 0-5 over-under record.

Team Analysis

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City comes into the season ranked 8th in offensive power rankings after finishing 3rd in points per game (120.1) last season. They excelled in efficiency, ranking 2nd in field goal percentage (49.9%) and leading the league in three-point shooting at 38.9%. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 30.1 PPG last season, is expected to lead the NBA in scoring.

Defensively, OKC ranked 10th, allowing 112.7 PPG and holding opponents to 45.6% shooting (4th lowest). They ranked 2nd in blocked shots (6.6 per game) and 12th in defensive rebounding. Without Isaiah Hartenstein, their shot-blocking and rebounding might take a hit.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets finished 14th in points per game last season (114.9) but ranked 4th in field goal percentage (49.6%). Nikola Jokic led the team in scoring, averaging 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9 assists per game. Denver was solid defensively, allowing 109.6 PPG (7th) and holding opponents to 46.3% shooting.

Denver also ranked 10th in blocked shots, averaging 5.6 per game, and was one of the top teams in defensive rebounding, led by Jokic.

Betting Trends

• Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in their last five road contests, averaging 104 points per game.
• Denver is 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
• The Thunder are 1-2 straight-up as underdogs in their last three games but went 2-1 ATS.
• Denver is 5-5 straight-up as favorites in their last ten games, with a 3-7 ATS record.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Denver is coming off a disappointing early exit from the postseason, while Oklahoma City looks to take another step forward. With improved defense and their usual offensive firepower, I like the Thunder to upset Denver in this opening matchup. I’m taking OKC on the money line.