NBA Predictions: LA Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors 2/14/24

Los Angeles Clippers (35-17 SU, 28-24 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (26-25 SU, 27-23 ATS)

When: Wednesday, February 14th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, CA, San Francisco

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: LAL +3.5/GS -3.5

Total: 234.5

Money Line: Los Angeles Clippers +135/-162

Notable Injuries

Clippers

• Kawhi Leonard (Out) Adductor
• P.J. Tucker (Out) Not With Team
• Bones Hyland (Out) Not With Team

Warriors

• Chris Paul (Out) Hand

At 10:00 ET, the Los Angeles Clippers (+135) will visit the Golden State Warriors (-162) in a Western Pacific Division matchup. The over/under line for this game is 234.5 points.

Golden State has won five straight games and is currently 10th in the Western Conference, while the Clippers are 3rd in the West and 1st in the Pacific Division.

Recent Form

In Clippers games this season, the average over/under line is 230.4, which is lower than today’s line of 234.5. The team is also on a three-game under streak.

When looking at their O/U record for the season, the Clippers are 23-29. Their games have averaged 230.5 points per game.

LA’s ATS record for the season is 28-24, and they have gone 14-12 vs. the spread on the road. The team has covered in their last two games on the road.

Currently, the Clippers are 9th in the Western Conference with a record of 35-17. In the West, they are 3rd and have gone 21-13 against other Western Conference teams.

In their last game, the Clippers lost to the Timberwolves by a score of 121-100. LA was favored by 4.5 points in that game and is 1-8 as the underdog this season.

Golden State has won five straight games and is favored by 3.5 points against the Clippers. This season, the Warriors are 20-10 as the favorite and have a 13-17 ATS record in those games. As the favorite, they have won their last five games straight up and have an ATS win streak of five games.

In their last game, the Warriors defeated the Jazz by a score of 129-107. They were favored by 1 point in that game and covered the spread by 22 points. The O/U line for that game was 240.5.

On the season, the Warriors have an O/U record of 27-23-1, and their games have averaged 236.8 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 234.5, and Golden State has gone under the total in their last five games.

Against Western Conference teams, the Warriors are 14-19 this season and are currently 10th in the West. In the Pacific Division, they are in 5th place with a record of 26-25.

Golden State’s ATS record for the season is 27-23, and they have covered the spread in their last five games. At home, they are 11-15 ATS and have an average scoring differential of -0.6 points per game.

The Historicals

Across the previous 5 meetings between the teams, the Warriors have an average scoring margin of +3 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 3-2. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 3-2. Combined, they averaged 231 points in these games.

Analysis

The Clippers are one of the most efficient three-point shooting teams in the league, leading the NBA in three-point shooting percentage at 39%. They are also 5th in the league in field goal percentage overall at 49%.

On the season, the Clippers are averaging 118 points per game, which is 10th in the NBA. In terms of pace, they are 25th in the league at 97.3 possessions per game.

When it comes to scoring on the road, the Clippers are averaging 118.8 points per game, which is 5th in the NBA. However, they have been held below their scoring average in three straight games.

On average, the Los Angeles defense is giving up 112.5 points per game (9th). Right now, they are on a 2 game streak of giving up fewer points than their season average. For the season, Los Angeles is ranked 17th in fewest fouls per game. Team’s are averaging 22.0 free-throws per game vs. the Clippers and have an overall field goal percentage of 46.8%.

Offensively, the Warriors are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league, ranking 3rd in three-pointers made per game at 15. However, they are just 16th in two-point field goal percentage and 16th in overall field goal percentage.

At home, Golden State is averaging 118.1 points per game compared to 120.5 on the road. Overall, they are 6th in the NBA in scoring at 119.2 points per game.

In terms of pace, the Warriors are 9th in the league at 100.2 possessions per game. When it comes to assists, they are 6th in the NBA at 28.6 per contest.

The Warriors’ defense is presently ranked 19th in the league, allowing an average of 117.6 points per contest. In terms of two point field goal attempts, the Warriors defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 54.5% while allowing 35.8% from downtown.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Los Angeles has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 129 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
• In their last ten games at home, the Warriors have a straight up record of 6-4 while going 8-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 123 points per game in this stretch.
• Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Clippers have a straight up record of 1-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-4.
• Golden State has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Golden State Warriors are hoping the approaching All-Star Break won’t cool down their hot play, as they have won five straight games and are in the thick of the play-in tournament race. On the other side, the Clippers are two games out of the top spot of the Western Conference and will be without Kawhi Leonard tonight. I like the Warriors to keep things rolling at home and I am taking them at -3.5.