NBA Predictions: Celtics vs. Cavs Pick Game 3

The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Cavaliers have gone 3-1-1, but the Celtics actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Boston has averaged 110 points per contest, while allowing 107. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-3. Combined, they averaged 217 points in these games.

Analysis

Boston comes into the game as the NBA’s second-highest scoring team, at 120.6 points per game. However, they are just 23rd in pace, averaging 97.2 possessions per game. The Celtics lead the league in both three-point attempts and three-point makes this season. They are averaging 16.5 made threes per game and 42.5 attempts.

Jaylen Brown is averaging 23 points per game over his last five, while shooting 52.2% from the field. Derrick White is averaging 22.8 points per game in his last five games and 4.6 made threes per game. Jayson Tatum is averaging 26.9 points per game this season, followed by Brown at 20.1 points per game.

On the season, the Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 108.2 points per game, which is 4th in the league. When playing on the road, Boston has been even better, giving up just 109.4 points per game, which is 3rd in the NBA.

Over their last five games, the Celtics have been the best defensive team in the league, allowing just 93.8 points per game. During this stretch, opponents have struggled to make threes against Boston, shooting just 28.5% from beyond the arc.

One area where the Celtics have excelled this season is at the free-throw line, as they are giving up just 17 made free throws per game, which is 1st in the NBA.

Donovan Mitchell is averaging 35.8 points per game over his last five games on a shooting percentage of 49.2%. In these games, he also pulled down 6.4 rebounds. For the season, he is averaging 26.6 points and 5.1 rebounds. Darius Garland has averaged 16.8 points per game in his last five games to go along with 4.6 assists. On the season, he has hit 37.1% of his three-point shots.

Cleveland is 23rd in scoring this year, at 112.6 points per game. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 113.3 points per contest. The Cavaliers are below average in pace but are 11th in both three-point attempts and makes. Their three-point shooting percentage of 36% is 19th in the league.

When it comes to defending the three-point line, the Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the best in the league, allowing opponents to shoot just 36.5% from beyond the arc. On the season, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average 64.6% of the time vs. Cleveland.

Overall, the Cavaliers are giving up 109.4 points per game, which is good for 7th in the NBA. Over their last five games, they have been even better, allowing just 102.8 points per game.

One area where the Cavaliers have struggled defensively is at the free-throw line, where they are giving up 21.3 made free-throws per game. Over their last five games, opponents have made an average of 20.4 free-throws per game vs. Cleveland.

Betting Trends

• The Celtics are 2-1 ATS in their three last road games and 2-1 straight-up.
• Across the Cavaliers last five home games, the team averaged 96 points per game while allowing 110. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-4, while going 1-4 straight-up.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Cavaliers have a straight up record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-2.
• Through their last five games as the favorite, the Celtics have an ATS record of 4-1 and a straight up mark of 4-1.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

A similar situation played out in the Celtics first-round series, as they dropped game two at home as the heavy favorite. And they did so once again on Thursday, falling to the Cavaliers 118-94. Now, they are on the road and still favored by 7.5 points. Although I do see the Celtics bouncing back with a win, the combination of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell has the ability to keep pace with the Celtics offensively. I like Cleveland at +7.5 today.