NBA Predictions: Celtics vs. Bucks Pick for April 9th

Boston Celtics (62-16 SU, 40-35 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (47-31 SU, 33-45 ATS)

When: Tuesday, April 9th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Bos -2/Mil +2

Total: 227.5

Money Line: Boston Celtics -131/+109

Notable Injuries

Celtics

• Al Horford (Questionable) Toe
• Kristaps Porzingis (Questionable) Injury Management

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Questionable) Hamstring
• Khris Middleton (Probable) Mouth
• Patrick Beverley (Probable) Ankle
• MarJon Beauchamp (Out) Ankle
• Jaylin Galloway (Out) Ankle

At 7:30 ET, the Celtics (-131) will visit the Bucks (+109) in a game that will be played at Fiserv Forum. The over/under line for the matchup is 227.5 points.

Boston (-2) is currently favored over Milwaukee, and the Celtics have won five straight games. The Bucks have lost four in a row, and they are 2nd in the Eastern Conference with a record of 47-31. The Celtics are 1st in the East with a record of 62-16.

Recent Form

The Celtics have a record of 62-16, which is the best in the Eastern Conference. They have won five straight games and are favored by 2 points today, giving them a record of 60-15 as the favorite this season.

In their last game, the Celtics defeated the Trail Blazers by a score of 124-107. The combined scoring in that game was 231 points, and the O/U line was 215.5.

This season, the Celtics have an average scoring differential of +12.1 points per game when they are favored. Their ATS record as the favorite is 38-34 (19-19 on the road) and 40-35 overall.

Boston’s O/U record for the season is 40-37-1, and their games have averaged a combined 230 points. Today’s O/U line is set at 227.5, and 36 of their games have had higher over/under lines.

The Bucks have lost four straight games against the spread, and their ATS record at home is 17-23. Today, they are 2-point underdogs and have gone 5-7 ATS as underdogs this season.

Milwaukee’s O/U record for the season is 39-39, and their games have averaged 236.6 points per game. Today’s O/U line is 227.5, and 25 of their games have had lower over/under lines.

In their last game, the Bucks were favored by 4 points but lost to the Knicks by a score of 122-109. The O/U line for that game was 220.5.

Overall, the Bucks are 47-31 this season, which is good for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. In non-conference games, they are 15-14 compared to 32-17 against the East.

For the season, the Bucks have an ATS record of 33-45, and they have covered the spread in just 3 of their 12 games as underdogs. At home, they have an average scoring margin of +5.9 points per game.

The Historicals

The level of competition has been tight in the 5 most recent games between Celtics and Bucks with just 1 points per game separating the teams. Milwaukee has the ATS edge in this span at 3-2. Boston and Milwaukee averaged a combined 241 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Celtics are one of the top teams in the league, averaging 120.8 points per game (2nd). Interestingly, they have actually been better on the road this season, averaging 118.7 points compared to 123.1 at home.

Heading into this game, Boston has outscored the NBA scoring average in 74.4% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 19th in the league at 97.3 possessions per game.

One area where the Celtics have excelled is three-point shooting. They lead the NBA in both three-point attempts and makes, hitting 38% of their shots from beyond the arc. In contrast, they are 30th in two-point attempts and 29th in two-point makes.

So far this season, the Celtics defense has been performing well, ranking 5th in the NBA at 109.2 points allowed per contest. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Celtics squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 52.0% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 34.6% from downtown.

At home, the Bucks are averaging 121.7 points per game, which is 5th in the NBA. Overall, they are 4th in the league in scoring at 119.7 points per game. In terms of pace, Milwaukee is 5th in the NBA.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Bucks are 5th in both three-point makes and attempts. However, they are just 10th in three-point shooting percentage at 37%. Overall, Milwaukee is 7th in field goal percentage.

So far this season, the Bucks have outscored the NBA scoring average in 62.8% of their games. In terms of assists, they are 16th in the league. When it comes to offensive rebounds, Milwaukee is 25th in the NBA.

So far, the Bucks defense is giving up 116.8 points per contest, which has them sitting 22nd in the NBA. One thing to note, is they have given up more points than their season average in three straight matchups. Inside the arc, the Bucks defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 54.0% and 35.6% from three-point territory.

Betting Trends

• Across the Celtics last ten road games, the team averaged 120 points per game while allowing 107. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 7-3, while going 8-2 straight-up.
• Across their ten previous home games, Milwaukee has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight up record in these matchups was 4-6 while averaging 110 points per game.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Milwaukee has an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 3-7 straight up.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Celtics have a strong straight up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks have been downright bad of late, dropping games against teams they have no business losing to. And there seems to be a narrative around the team that they will turn things around when it matters. I don’t see that taking place and there are some serious flaws with this roster. Even though Boston doesn’t have anything to play for in this one, I still see them picking up the win and covering the spread.