NBA Playoffs: Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesGame 6 Pick & Predictions

Denver Nuggets (57-25 SU, 43-47 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26 SU, 46-44 ATS)

When: Thursday, May 16th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Den +2/Min -2

Total: 203.5

Money Line: Denver Nuggets +110/-132

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Calf
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee

Timberwolves

• Mike Conley (Questionable) Calf

Thursday’s game between the Nuggets and Timberwolves is a pivotal one, as the Nuggets lead the series 3-2. The Timberwolves are favored by two points and are -132 on the money line. The Nuggets are +110, and the over/under line is at 203.5. Tip-off is at 8:30 PM ET from the Target Center in Minneapolis and is being televised on ESPN.

Thanks to a big third quarter, the Nuggets were able to pull away from the Timberwolves in the last game of this series, winning 112-97. Heading into the game, the Nuggets were favored by 4.5 points and easily covered the spread. The game also went over the over/under line of 206 points by three points.

Denver’s defense was able to hold the Timberwolves to just 30.8% shooting from three-point range. Nikola Jokic had a big game for the Nuggets, putting up 40 points and 13 assists. Jokic’s 40 points were a game-high, and he also shot 68.2% from the field.

Recent Form

The Nuggets have won three straight games and are currently 2nd in the Western Conference with a record of 57-25. In non-conference games, they are 24-6 compared to 33-19 against the West.

Denver has an ATS record of 43-47 this season and has covered the spread in three straight games. On the road, they are 20-24 ATS and have an average scoring differential of +1.4 points per game.

As the underdog, the Nuggets are 7-6 straight-up and 8-5 ATS. They have been the underdog in 13 of their 82 games. Today’s O/U line of 203.5 is lower than their season average of 224.4.

In their most recent game, the Nuggets defeated the Timberwolves by a score of 112-97. Denver was favored by 4.5 points going into the game and covered the spread. The O/U line for the game was 206.

Denver’s O/U record for the season is 38-52-2, and their games have averaged a combined 222.9 points. The Nuggets have hit the over in their last three games.

Minnesota’s record as the favorite this season is 49-18, and they are favored by 2 points today. In games where they are favored, they have gone 31-35 against the spread, and their ATS record at home is 20-25.

In Western Conference play, the Timberwolves are 37-15 compared to 19-11 against non-conference opponents. This is good for 3rd place in the West, and they have an overall record of 56-26.

Minnesota has lost three straight games both straight-up and against the spread. In their most recent game, they lost to the Nuggets by a score of 112-97. Minnesota was an underdog of 4.5 points in that game.

This season, the Timberwolves have an O/U record of 48-43, and their games have averaged 218.8 points per game. In their last three games, the final score has gone over the O/U line.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Nuggets. In these matchups, Denver has averaged 104 points per game, while allowing 101. Denver and Minnesota averaged a combined 205 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Denver comes into the game as the NBA’s 4th best shooting team, hitting 49% of their shots from the field. Their shooting percentage on two-point attempts is 7th best in the league. Despite their efficiency, the Nuggets are last in the league in three-point attempts and 25th in three-point makes. Nikola Jokic has been carrying the Nuggets offense of late, averaging 29.4 points per game in his last five games. This has come while shooting 53.8% from the field. Over this stretch, he also averaged 10.4 rebounds and 9.2 assists.

Denver is hoping to get Jamal Murray back from a calf injury. For the season, he has hit 42.5% of his threes and averaged 16.8 points per game in his last five games. Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 2.7 made threes per game on a three-point shooting percentage of 39.7%.

So far this season, the Nuggets have been one of the best defensive teams in the league, coming in ranked 6th in points allowed per game (109.0). They have been especially tough from beyond the arc, allowing opponents to shoot just 35.1% from three, which is 2nd in the NBA.

Denver has done a good job of limiting opponents’ three-point attempts, ranking 2nd in the league in three-point attempts allowed per game (31.3). In terms of field goal percentage allowed, the Nuggets are 9th in the NBA at 46.6%.

Over their last five games, the Nuggets have given up just 101.2 points per game, which is 3rd in the league during that stretch. In terms of made free-throws allowed, they have been 7th in the NBA over their last five games.

Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 18th-ranked scoring offense, at 113 points per game. Their production at home is even worse, at 111.4 points per contest. The Timberwolves are among the league leaders in three-point shooting percentage, at 38%, but are just 17th in three-point makes, at 12.6 per game.

Anthony Edwards has been carrying the Timberwolves offense of late, averaging 30.2 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he hit 40.6% of his threes and averaged 2.6 made threes per game. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 19.4 points in his last five games while hitting 52.2% of his threes in these games.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA this season, allowing just 106.3 points per game. They have been even better at home, allowing just 103.8 points per game. In fact, opponents have scored less than their season average in 80.5% of games against the Timberwolves this season.

Minnesota has been able to shut down opposing offenses by doing a great job of protecting the paint. They are first in the league in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 50.9%. Overall, they are third in field goal percentage allowed at 45.4%.

One area where the Timberwolves have struggled a bit recently is defending the three-point line. Over their last five games, they have allowed opponents to shoot 42.5% from beyond the arc. However, for the season, they are still fourth in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 36.0%.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Denver has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 115 points per game.
• Minnesota has played well in their previous five home games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 111 points per game while allowing 103. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Nuggets have a strong straight up record of 5-0. In addition, their ATS record was 5-0 in these scenarios.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Heading into game six, the Wolves are two-point favorites despite having dropped three straight games in the series. Even though momentum is fully in favor of the Nuggets and Nikola Jokic is coming off a 40-point performance, I see Minnesota coming out with a ton of energy and Anthony Edwards should be as agressive as we’ve seen him with the Timberwolves’ season on the line. Look for home court advantage to play a big role in this one, and I like Minnesota to cover at -2.