NBA Playoffs Betting: Pacers vs. Bucks – Insights and Top Picks

Indiana Pacers (47-35 SU, 44-36 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (49-33 SU, 35-47 ATS)

When: Sunday, April 21st, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Ind -1.5/Mil +1.5

Total: 231.5

Money Line: Indiana Pacers -120/-101

Notable Injuries

Pacers

• Bennedict Mathurin (Out) Shoulder

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Doubtful) Calf

Game one of this first-round series between the Pacers and Bucks tips off at 7:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. TNT is carrying the game on TV. The Pacers are the slight favorite, with the point spread at -1.5. The over/under line is at 231.5, and the money line odds are -120 for Indiana and -101 for Milwaukee.

Recent Form

The Pacers have a 44-36 ATS record this season, going 22-18 ATS on the road and 22-18 ATS at home. Today, they are favored by 1.5 points and have an ATS record of 21-22 as the favorite.

Indiana’s O/U record for the season is 43-39, and the over has hit in their last five games. On average, their games have finished with 243.5 points, which is higher than today’s line of 231.5.

Indiana’s most recent game was a 157-115 victory over the Hawks. The O/U line for that game was 242 points. The Pacers were favored by 14 points in that game.

In the Eastern Conference, the Pacers are currently in 6th place with a record of 47-35. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 32-20 compared to 15-15 in non-conference games.

Overall, Indiana is 21-18 as the favorite and 26-17 in games where they are favored. On the road, they have an average scoring differential of -0.7 points per game.

Today, the Bucks are looking to snap a two-game losing streak after losing to the Magic by a score of 113-88. In that game, the over/under line was 215 points.

In terms of their ATS record, the Bucks are 35-47 this season and have gone 19-23 against the spread at home. Milwaukee has covered the spread in two straight games at home.

As the underdog, the Bucks have gone 4-11 straight-up and 6-9 vs. the spread. Today, they are getting 1.5 points as the underdog.

This season, the Bucks have an O/U record of 41-41 and their games have averaged 235.3 points per game. In their last game, the O/U line was 215.5 points.

Despite their loss to the Magic, the Bucks are still in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 49-33. In the Central Division, they are in 1st place.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Indiana has an ATS record of 4-1 in the previous 5 matchups vs Milwaukee. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +3 points per game in favor of the Pacers. Indiana and Milwaukee averaged a combined 253 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Indiana is the NBA’s top-scoring team this season, at 123.3 points per game. They have been even better on the road, at 121 points per contest. The Pacers are also the top-ranked team in field goal percentage, hitting 50% of their shots this season.

Looking at Myles Turner’s last five games, he has hit 60.7% of his shots from the field and 44% of his threes. This has led to an average of 20.4 points per game. Pascal Siakam has also been at 60% shooting in his last five, averaging 20.4 points per game. For the season, Siakam is averaging 21.7 points per game. Tyrese Haliburton is averaging 20.1 points per game and 10.9 assists for the year.

The Pacers’ defense is presently ranked 27th in the league, allowing an average of 120.2 points per contest. The Indiana defense has allowed opponents to shoot 36.5% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 49.7% of their field goal attempts vs. Indiana.

Milwaukee comes into the game as the NBA’s 4th-ranked scoring offense, averaging 119 points per game. Their home scoring average of 121.2 points per contest is 5th in the league. Looking at their pace, the Bucks are 6th in the league, averaging 99.9 possessions per game.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to miss the game due to a calf injury. This season, he is averaging 30.4 points and 11.5 rebounds. Over his last five games, Bobby Portis has hit 62.9% of his shots from the field and 18 points. In these games, he also averaged 2 threes and 7.4 rebounds. Brook Lopez has hit 2.4 threes per game in his last five games.

So far, the Bucks’ defense is ranked 21st in the league at 116.4 points per contest. Opponents are hitting 54.1% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 35.5% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• In their last five games away from home, the Pacers have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 120 points per game in these contests.
• When looking at their past three home matchups, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 0-3 while averaging 102 per game. The team went 0-3 overall in these games.
• Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Bucks have a straight up record of 2-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-2.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Pacers have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

A lot of the chatter leading up to this series is that the Bucks are the top candidate in the playoffs to be upset. Even with a healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks haven’t lived up to the hype after adding Damian Lillard. Milwaukee may come out with a lot of energy, looking to prove the doubters wrong, but the Pacers have had their number this year, and I see Indiana taking game one. My pick is to take the Pacers on the money line.