NBA Picks: Warriors vs. Bucks ATS Prediction 1/13/24

Golden State Warriors (18-20 SU, 17-20 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (26-12 SU, 16-22 ATS)

When: Saturday, January 13th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: GS +11.5/Mil -11.5 (BAS – Offers -105 odds instead of -110! Making the switch will save you THOUSANDS of dollars in risked money!)

Total: 245

Money Line: Golden State Warriors +452/-621

Notable Injuries

Warriors

• Draymond Green (Out) Conditioning
• Chris Paul (Out) Hand
• Gary Payton II (Out) Hamstring
• Moses Moody (Out) Calf

Bucks

• Jae Crowder (Out) Groin

At 8:00 ET, the 18-20 Golden State Warriors head to Milwaukee to take on the 26-12 Bucks. The Bucks are currently 11.5-point favorites and the over/under line is set at 245.

This non-conference matchup will be played at Fiserv Forum and can be seen on NBCS.

Recent Form

Golden State is 18-20 overall this season and is currently 12th in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, the Warriors are 7-4 compared to 11-16 against other Western Conference teams.

When playing on the road, Golden State is 7-9 straight up and 10-6 ATS. As the underdog, they are 4-12 straight up and 10-5 ATS. Today, they are 11.5-point underdogs and have an average scoring differential of -3.1 PPG as the underdog.

On average, the Warriors’ games have seen 235.4 points per game this season. Their O/U record is 22-15-1, and the over has hit in each of their last three games. This year, 37 of their 38 games have had lower O/U lines than 245.

In their last game, the Warriors beat the Bulls by a score of 140-131. They were 2.5-point underdogs going into the game, giving them an ATS win by 9 points.

At 26-12, the Bucks are in 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. In non-conference games, they are 5-2 compared to 21-10 against other teams in the East.

When playing at home, the Bucks have an average scoring differential of +6.4 points per game. They are 17-4 straight-up at home and 8-13 vs. the spread. As the favorite, they have a record of 26-11 and are 15-22 ATS.

On average, the Bucks’ games have seen 243.8 points per game this season. Today’s over/under line of 245 is higher than 27 of their previous games. Overall, their O/U record for the season is 23-15.

Milwaukee is coming off a 135-102 win over the Celtics. They were 2-point favorites in that game, and the combined scoring total was 237. The over/under line for that game was 247.5.

The Historicals

Across the last five matchups between the teams, Golden State has gone 3-2 vs the spread. However, the Bucks actually have a positive scoring margin in these games at +3 points per game. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 3-2. Combined, they averaged 233 points in these games.

Analysis

On the road, the Warriors are averaging 119.7 points per game this season, which is 5th in the NBA. Overall, they are 10th in scoring at 117.4 points per game.

Golden State’s three-point shooting has been a key part of their offense this year. They are 4th in the league in both three-pointers made per game (14.8) and attempted (40.2). However, their three-point shooting percentage is 14th at 36%.

So far, the Warriors have outscored the NBA scoring average in 55.3% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 15th in the league at 99.1 possessions per game.

At present, the Warriors’ defense is ranked 22nd, allowing 117.9 points per game. So far this season, the Warriors’ defense has struggled with fouls, averaging 7th in fouls per contest. On average, opponents are getting to the line 24.3 times per game vs. Golden State.

When playing at home, the Bucks have the 3rd highest scoring average in the NBA at 125.1 points per game. Overall, they are 2nd in the league, averaging 124.4 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage, the Bucks are 3rd at 50%.

So far this season, Milwaukee has outscored the NBA scoring average in 78.9% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 4th in the league at 101.9 possessions per game.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Bucks are 7th in both attempts and makes. Overall, they are shooting 38% from beyond the arc. In terms of assists, Milwaukee is 12th in the NBA.

So far, the Bucks’ defense is ranked 24th in the league at 119.4 points per contest. In terms of takeaways, the Bucks are causing 12.8 turnovers per game, ranking 12th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 10th in rejections, averaging 5.6 blocked shots each game.

Betting Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, Golden State has an ATS mark of 6-4. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 2-8 while averaging 119 points per game.
• When looking at their past three home matchups, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 0-3 while averaging 121 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Warriors have a straight-up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 2-1.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Bucks have a straight up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 1-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks have had the benefit of some favorable scheduling of late. In their last game, they cruised past Boston, who was playing on back-to-back nights. And tonight, they face a Warriors squad that faced Chicago last night. Even with the spread sitting at -11.5, I’m still taking the Bucks to cover. Rough week? Double your bankroll with a 100% real cash bonus using one of our sportsbook bonus promo codes!