NBA Picks: Thunder vs. Celtics Expert Predictions & Money Line Best Bet

Oklahoma City Thunder (53-12 SU, 38-24 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (47-18 SU, 29-35 ATS)

When: Wednesday, March 12th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: OKC +3.5/Bos -3.5

Total: 229

Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder +136/-162

Notable Injuries

Thunder

• Jalen Williams (Out) Hip
• Nikola Topić (Out) Knee
• Ajay Mitchell (Out) Toe

Celtics

• Kristaps Porzingis (Questionable) Illness
• Jaylen Brown (Probable) Knee
• Jayson Tatum (Questionable) Knee

At 7:30 ET on ESPN, the Celtics (-162) will host the Thunder (+136) in a non-conference matchup. The over/under line is 229.

Boston is currently on a five-game win streak and is favored by 3.5 points. They are 2nd in the Eastern Conference with a record of 47-18. Oklahoma City is 1st in the Western Conference with a record of 53-12.

Recent Form

After a 140-127 loss to the Nuggets on Monday, the Thunder’s record now stands at 53-12. Oklahoma City, who were -9.5 point favorites, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points of 267 exceeded the O/U line of 240.5 by 26.5 points.

Oklahoma City led 73-67 at halftime but were outscored 34-26 in the 3rd quarter. A 13-0 run by Denver in the 4th quarter extended the score from 99-96 to 112-96, sealing the Thunder’s fate.

Boston improved to 47-18 this season with a 114-108 win over the Jazz on Monday. The Celtics were favored by 16 points but didn’t cover the spread, and the total score of 222 points fell short of the 229-point over/under line.

Boston appeared to be in control after a dominant 3rd quarter, outscoring Utah 37-22, but the Jazz made things interesting with an 11-0 run in the 4th, cutting the Celtics’ lead from 92-72 to 103-72 before Boston held on for the win.

The Historicals

When looking at how these teams have performed against the spread in recent matchups, the Thunder hold the edge at 4-1. However, the average scoring margin in these matchups has been tight, sitting at just 2 points per game. Oklahoma City and Boston averaged a combined 238 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Analysis

Luguentz Dort knocked down eight threes, shooting 57.1% from deep, and finished with a team-high 26 points and seven rebounds in the Thunder’s loss to the Nuggets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 25 points and seven assists, hitting three threes at 42.9%, while Isaiah Hartenstein contributed 20 points and seven boards.

As a team, the Thunder made 19 threes, shooting 40.4% from beyond the arc, though their overall field goal percentage was 47%. Hartenstein scored 13 of his 20 points in the opening quarter, while Dort added 9 points in the 3rd.

The Thunder struggled defensively against the Nuggets, giving up 140 points while allowing Denver to shoot 60% from the field. Oklahoma City allowed 34 points in both the 1st and 3rd quarters and 39 in the 4th.

From beyond the arc, the Nuggets hit 18 threes on 56% shooting. The Thunder sent Denver to the line 20 times, where they made 18 free throws. Oklahoma City recorded nine steals and six blocks in the game.

In their 114-108 win over the Jazz, the Celtics connected on 18 threes, shooting 34% from deep and 43% overall. Sam Hauser led the way with 33 points, hitting nine threes at a 47.4% clip, while Jaylen Brown added 26 points.

Hauser exploded for 23 points in the 3rd quarter, and Derrick White scored 13 of his 18 points in the 2nd. Brown contributed 9 points in the 4th quarter.

Defensively, the Celtics were strong through three quarters, holding the Jazz to 24, 23, and 22 points in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters, respectively. However, they struggled in the 4th, allowing 39 points. Overall, they gave up 108 points on 45% shooting.

Boston did well defending the three, as Utah made 13 threes on 34% shooting. The Celtics also limited the Jazz’s trips to the line, where they went 9/12. Boston finished with 11 steals and eight blocks.

Betting Trends

• Oklahoma City has played well in their previous five road games, going 5-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 132 points per game while allowing 119. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Across their last five home contests, Boston has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 113 points per game.
• The Thunder have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Boston has an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 8-2 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

On Wednesday night, we have an excellent matchup between the Thunder and Celtics, and Boston is currently favored by -3.5 points at home. Boston has been banged up lately, but they have still been able to keep things rolling. However, the Thunder are going to be a different level of challenge, and I think OKC comes out of Boston with a win. I’m taking them on the money line tonight.