NBA Picks: Sacramento Kings vs. Orlando Magic | 3/23/24

Sacramento Kings (40-29 SU, 34-35 ATS) vs. Orlando Magic (42-28 SU, 47-23 ATS)

When: Saturday, March 23rd, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Kia Center, FL, Orlando

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Sac +3.5/Orl -3.5

Total: 215.5

Money Line: Sacramento Kings +133/-161

Notable Injuries

Kings

• Trey Lyles (Out) Knee
• Sasha Vezenkov (Questionable) Ankle
• Kevin Huerter (Out) Shoulder

Magic

• Gary Harris (Questionable) Foot

At 7:00 ET, the 8th-ranked Kings (+133) will travel to take on the Magic (-161) who are 4th in the Eastern Conference. The over/under line is currently set at 215.5 points.

Orlando (42-28) has won five straight games and is favored by 3.5 points. This non-conference matchup will be played at the Kia Center in Orlando and can be seen on NBCS.

Recent Form

Sacramento’s games have averaged 234.4 points per game this season, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 215.5. The team’s O/U record for the season is 34-34-1, and the under has hit in their last two games.

As the underdog, the Kings have gone 10-11 straight-up and 13-8 against the spread. They have covered the spread in their last three games as the underdog.

In their last game against the Wizards, the Kings lost 109-102. They were favored by 11 points going into the game and failed to cover the spread. The O/U line for that game was 237.5.

In the Western Conference, the Kings are currently in 8th place with a record of 40-29. Against the West, they are 27-17 and 9-6 against other teams in the Pacific Division.

On the road this season, the Kings are 20-16 straight-up and 21-15 ATS. Their average scoring differential on the road is +1.0 points per game.

Orlando is currently favored by 3.5 points over the Kings and has gone 47-23 ATS this season. At home, the Magic are 25-9 ATS and have covered the spread in four straight games.

In terms of their O/U record, Orlando is 33-37 this season, and the over has hit in their last two games. Today’s O/U line of 215.5 is lower than their season average of 219.7 points per game.

Looking at their record vs. the spread as the favorite, the Magic are 23-6 this season. As the favorite, they have won four straight games and have gone 25-4 straight-up.

Orlando’s last game was a 121-106 win over the Pelicans. They were 2.5-point underdogs going into the game and have now won five straight games. The game went over the O/U line of 207.5.

The Magic are currently 4th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 42-28. In games against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 30-17 compared to 12-11 in non-conference games.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Kings have averaged 131 points per game compared to 121 for Orlando. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Sacramento. The over-under record in these same games is 5-0, with the teams combining for an average of 252 points per game.

Analysis

The Kings are one of the top offensive teams in the NBA, averaging 117.9 points per game (8th). However, they have scored slightly less on the road (115.8) compared to their season average.

In terms of pace, Sacramento is 9th in the NBA with an average of 99.8 possessions per game. When it comes to field goal percentage, the Kings are shooting 48% (12th).

One of the strengths of the Kings’ offense is their ability to get to the free-throw line. They are 21st in free-throw attempts but have made just 15.7 free throws per game (27th).

At present, the Kings’ defense is ranked 18th, allowing 116.5 points per game. On two-point field goal attempts, the Kings’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 54.2% and allowing 39.0% from beyond the arc.

At home, the Magic are averaging 113.9 points per game, which is 18th in the NBA. Overall, they are 26th in scoring at 110.9 points per game. In terms of pace, Orlando is 26th at 96.9 possessions per game.

Despite being 13th in two-point field goal percentage, the Magic are last in the league in three-point shooting at just 35%. They are also last in three-point makes at 11 per game.

When it comes to free throws, Orlando is 2nd in attempts at 24.8 per game. In terms of assists, they are 26th in the NBA with 24.7 per game.

In the current season, the Magic defense has excelled, sitting 3rd in the NBA by allowing 108.8 points per game. Opponents are hitting 55.0% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 35.4% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Kings have a straight up record of 5-5 while going 5-5 vs. the spread. The team averaged 114 points per game in this stretch.
• Across their last three home contests, Orlando has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 102 points per game.
• The last ten games that Sacramento was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 6-4 straight up.
• The Magic have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Magic are suddenly one of the hottest teams in the East after rattling off five straight wins. Now, Orlando is just one game behind the Cavaliers for the 3rd seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race. So far this season, they have been excellent at home, and I expect that to continue with a win over the Kings. I’m taking the Magic to cover at -3.5.