NBA Picks: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks

Minnesota Timberwolves (42-30 SU, 40-30-2 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (43-28 SU, 39-31-1 ATS)
When: Monday March 21 2022, 08:30 PM (ET)
Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas Texas
TV: BSNX

Point Spread: MIN +3.5/DAL -3.5 (Opened DAL -3.5 at Everygame)
Total: 230 (Opened at 230)
Money Line: Minnesota 130/Dallas -156
Power Rating:

Probable Starting Lineups

Minnesota Timberwolves PG Patrick Beverley, SG D’Angelo Russell, SF Anthony Edwards, PF Jarred Vanderbilt, C Karl-Anthony Towns Q
Dallas Mavericks PG Luka Doncic, SG Jalen Brunson, SF Reggie Bullock Off Inj, PF Dorian Finney-Smith, C Dwight Powell

Key Injuries

Minnesota Timberwolves Karl-Anthony Towns: Forearm (QUESTIONABLE) Jaden McDaniels: Ankle (OUT) McKinley Wright IV: Elbow (OUT)

Dallas Mavericks Reggie Bullock: Personal (PROBABLE) Spencer Dinwiddie: Knee (PROBABLE) Theo Pinson: Finger (OUT) Tim Hardaway Jr.: Foot (OUT)

The Dallas Mavericks host the Minnesota Timberwolves in a Non-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 08:30 PM ET at the American Airlines Center.

Recent Form

The Minnesota Timberwolves come into this game with an overall record of 42-30, placing them 7th in the Western Conference. On the season, Minnesota has won exactly half of their 36 road matchups, sitting at 18-18. Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have played well, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, Minnesota is averaging 127.0 points per game, 12.0 points more than their season average of 115.5. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 111.0 points per contest. Even though Minnesota has been picking up wins, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 117.0 points per game, up from the Timberwolves’ usual rate of 112.0.In the Minnesota Timberwolves’ most recent game, Minnesota took down Milwaukee by a score of 138-119

The Dallas Mavericks come into this game with an overall record of 43-28, placing them 5th in the Western Conference. So far, Dallas is above .500 at home, holding a record of 23-12. The Mavericks have played well over their last five games, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Dallas’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 106.0 points per game. Combined, the Mavericks’ last five opponents are giving up 111.0 points per contest. Even though the Mavericks have been adding to the win column, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 109.0 points per game, up from Dallas’s usual rate of 104.1. In the Dallas Mavericks’ most recent game, the team fell to Charlotte by a score of 129-108.

Individual Player Analysis

As Minnesota travels to take on the Dallas Mavericks, the Timberwolves’ leading scorer is Karl-Anthony Towns. Through 68 games, Towns is averaging 24 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 51.0% of his games. As Towns gets set to take on the Mavericks, he could be in line for a big game as Dallas is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 55.74% of their games. This figure places them 25th among NBA defenses. On the other side, Luka Doncic leads the Mavericks in scoring, averaging 28 points across his 57 games. Throughout the season, Doncic has outscored his season average in 39.0% of his outings. Given that Minnesota’s defense has struggled to slow down their opponent’s top scorers, Luka Doncic should be in line for a big performance. So far, the Timberwolves have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 52.73% of their games, giving them a rank of 20th among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

The Timberwolves come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 110.2 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Minnesota is winning at a rate of 57%. These victories are coming by an average margin of 13.0 points. On the other side, the Mavericks hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 27 games as the better defensive team, picking up 19 wins (70%).

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks have met up for 2 games. In their last meeting, Dallas picked up a 114-102 win.

How the Public is Betting the Timberwolves vs Mavericks

67% are betting the against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 230.0

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

• Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
• Timberwolves are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
• Mavericks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.
• Mavericks are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Tonight’s matchup between Dallas and Minnesota features two teams tied for 5th in the crowded Western Conference standings. The Timberwolves have put themselves in this position thanks to a 4 game winning streak, including winning 9 of their past 10 games. On the other side, Dallas has dropped 2 straight games but has still won 7 of their last 10. With the spread sitting 3.5 points in favor of the Mavs, I like Dallas to cover the spread. For the year, the Mavericks have been tough at home, going 23-12. Look for Luka Doncic and the Mavs to cool down the Timberwolves as they cover the spread.