NBA Picks: Mavs vs. Oklahoma City Game 2 Predictions

Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 52-37 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25 SU, 51-36 ATS)

When: Thursday, May 9th, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, OK, Oklahoma City

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Dal +5/OKC -5

Total: 218.5

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +165/-200

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Maxi Kleber (Out) Shoulder
• Luka Doncic (Probable) Knee
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Ankle

Thunder

None

The Thunder and Mavericks are set to tip off game two of this Western Conference first-round series at 9:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are currently leading the series 1-0 and are favored by five points at home. The over/under line is sitting at 218.5 points, and their money line odds are -200. The Mavericks are +165 on the money line.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder were able to easily take care of the Mavericks in the most recent game of this series, winning by a score of 117-95. Gilgeous-Alexander was just one rebound and one assist shy of a triple-double, finishing with 29 points, nine assists, and nine rebounds. Chet Holmgren also chipped in 19 points for the Thunder. As a team, Oklahoma City knocked down 16 threes on 45.7% shooting from beyond the arc.

Going into the game, the Thunder were favored by 4.5 points and ended up covering the spread thanks to a 28-16 4th quarter. The Thunder also held the Mavericks to just 39.3% shooting from the field. The over/under line for the game was 218.5 points, and the teams fell six points short of that mark.

Recent Form

Today, the Mavericks are looking to avenge a 117-95 loss to the Thunder. In that game, the O/U line was also 218.5, and the teams combined for just 212 points.

Dallas has an O/U record of 40-49 this season, and 81 of their games have had higher over/under lines than 218.5. On average, their games have finished with 231.5 points.

As the underdog, the Mavericks are 13-20 straight-up and 16-17 against the spread. Today, they are getting 5 points on the spread.

For the season, the Mavericks are 52-37 ATS, including a 29-16 record on the road. Their straight-up road record is 27-18, and they have an average scoring margin of +.7 points per game.

In the Western Conference standings, the Mavericks are in 5th place with a record of 50-32. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 31-21 compared to 19-11 in non-conference games.

Today, the Thunder are looking for their 11th straight win as they host the Mavericks. Oklahoma City is 1st in the Western Conference with a record of 57-25.

This season, the Thunder have been favored in 66 of their 82 games and have a record of 52-14 in those games. As the favorite, they have gone 39-27 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +10.9 points per game.

Oklahoma City’s ATS record for the season is 51-36, and they have covered the spread in their last four games. At home, they are 29-15 ATS and have an average scoring margin of +13.3 PPG.

In their most recent game against the Mavericks, the Thunder won by a score of 117-95. They were favored by 4.5 points in that game and easily covered the spread. The O/U line for that game was 218.5.

This season, the Thunder have an O/U record of 45-41-1, and the under has hit in their last three games. On average, their games have finished with 230.8 points, which is higher than today’s line of 218.5.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Thunder. In these matchups, Oklahoma City has averaged 123 points per game, while allowing 113. Dallas and Oklahoma City averaged a combined 236 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Coming into tonight’s game, the Mavericks are the NBA’s 8th ranked scoring offense, at 117.9 points per contest. On a per-game basis, they are the 3rd best three-point shooting team in terms of makes, averaging 14.6 made threes per game. This season, they have taken the 3rd most three-point attempts in the league. Dallas’ team three-point shooting percentage is 36%.

Luka Doncic is probable for tonight’s game despite dealing with a knee injury. Over his last five games, he has hit just 38.3% of his shots from the field and 16.3% of his threes. Kyrie Irving has hit 51.7% of his shots in his last five games, including 46.2% of his threes. For the season, Doncic is averaging 4.1 made threes per game, and Irving is averaging 3 made threes per contest.

On the season, the Mavericks are giving up 114.6 points per game, which is 18th in the NBA. In their last five games, they have been even better, allowing just 103.4 points per game, which is 5th in the league over that stretch.

One area where the Mavericks have been solid all season is in terms of field goal percentage allowed, as they are 18th in the NBA in that category. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 9th in field goal percentage allowed.

When it comes to defending the three-point line, Dallas is 18th in the NBA in terms of three-point percentage allowed on the season. Over their last five games, they have struggled in that area, ranking just 25th in three-point percentage allowed.

This season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.1 points per game to go along with 6.2 assists and 5.5 rebounds. Over his last five games, he has averaged 27.6 points while hitting 46.6% of his shots from the field. In these games, he also averaged 5.8 assists and 6.6 rebounds. Jalen Williams has averaged 20.6 points per game over his last five games while Chet Holmgren has averaged 16 points and 8.4 rebounds in his last five.

Looking at the Thunder’s team stats, they are 2nd in scoring at home this season, at 122.3 points per game. Overall, they are 3rd in scoring at 120.1 points per contest. The Thunder are also 2nd in field goal percentage, at 49%, and true shooting percentage. In terms of three-point shooting percentage, they are 1st in the league.

When playing at home this season, the Thunder have been one of the better defensive teams in the league, ranking 7th in points allowed per game at 109.0. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 90.6 points per game.

So far this season, opponents have scored less than their season average in 63.4% of games vs. Oklahoma City. However, they have allowed opponents to make more threes than their season average in 57.3% of games.

On the year, the Thunder are 3rd in field goal percentage allowed at 45.2%. They have been particularly good inside the arc, ranking 2nd in two-point shooting percentage allowed.

Betting Trends

• In their last five games away from home, the Mavericks have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 99 points per game in this stretch.
• In their last ten games at home, the Thunder have a straight up record of 6-4 while going 4-6 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 108 points per game in these contests.
• In their last five games as the betting underdog, the Mavericks have a strong straight up record of 3-2. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Thunder have an ATS record of 3-0 and a straight up mark of 3-0.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

We got game one right in this series by taking the Thunder to cover and are ready to go back to the well again. Luka Doncic finished with just 19 points in that game, and the Thunder forced him into difficult shots all night. And although Doncic is capable of hitting tough shots, it looks like his nagging injuries are really affecting his play. I’m taking OKC -5 tonight.