NBA Picks: Mavericks vs. Thunder Best Bet 5/7/24

Dallas Mavericks (50-32 SU, 52-36 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25 SU, 50-36 ATS)

When: Tuesday, May 7th, 9:30 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, OK, Oklahoma City

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Dal +3.5/OKC -3.5 (We”ve got a NEW 100% bonus at Xbet!)

Total: 218

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks +136/-162

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Maxi Kleber (Out) Shoulder
• Luka Doncic (Probable) Knee
• Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Out) Ankle

Thunder

None

Game one of this Western Conference second-round series between the Mavericks and Thunder tips off at 9:30 PM ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. TNT is carrying Tuesday night’s game on TV. Oklahoma City is the 3.5-point favorite at home and are -162 on the money line. The Mavericks are +136, and the over/under line is sitting at 218 points.

Kyrie Irving had a big game for the Mavericks, scoring 30 points and hitting five threes. Luka Doncic also added 28 points and 13 assists. Dallas won the game 114-101 and closed out their series vs. the Clippers with a 4-2 series win.

As a team, the Mavericks hit 12 threes on 33.3% shooting from beyond the arc. P.J. Washington also added 14 points and hit four threes. On the defensive end, Dallas held the Clippers to 101 points and 41% shooting from the field.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a double-double in the Thunder’s 97-89 win over the Pelicans, as he finished with 24 points and 10 rebounds. With the win, the Thunder swept the series, winning it 4-0. In the series-clinching win, the Thunder were able to pick up the win on the road.

Offensively, the Thunder hit 12 threes, and both Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 24 points. Williams also added eight rebounds and hit two threes. As a team, the Thunder hit 30% of their threes and 42.7% of their shots from the field.

Recent Form

Dallas is 13-19 as the underdog this season and is the underdog today by 3.5 points. In their games as the underdog, the average scoring margin is -5.5 points per game.

For the season, the Mavericks have an O/U record of 40-48 and have hit the over in three straight games. Today’s line is set at 218, and their games have averaged 231.7 points per game.

In their last game, the Mavericks beat the Clippers by a score of 114-101. The O/U line for that game was 209 points. Dallas covered the spread as 8-point favorites.

Dallas is 52-36 against the spread this season, including a 29-15 ATS record on the road. They have covered the spread in two straight games and have an average ATS scoring margin of +1.2 points per game on the road.

The Mavericks are currently 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 50-32. Against Western Conference opponents, they are 31-21 compared to 19-11 in non-conference games.

Today, the Thunder are looking to extend their win streak to 10 games as they face the Mavericks. In the Western Conference, Oklahoma City is the top seed with a record of 57-25.

Oklahoma City is favored by 3.5 points in today’s game and has gone 51-14 as the favorite this season. As the favorite, they have covered the spread in three straight games and have an ATS record of 38-27.

In their last game, the Thunder defeated the Pelicans by a score of 97-89. They were favored by 4.5 points in that game and have an ATS record of 50-36 for the season.

The O/U line for today’s game is set at 218 points, and the Thunder have seen an average of 231 points in their games this season. Their games have averaged an O/U line of 231.3 points.

Oklahoma City’s O/U record for the season is 45-40-1, and their last two games have finished below the posted over/under lines. Today’s line of 218 is lower than 81 of their previous games.

The Historicals

Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Thunder have averaged 123 points per game compared to 116 for Dallas. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Oklahoma City. A combined average of 239 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Analysis

Luka Doncic is averaging 29.2 points per game over his last five games to go along with 10.2 assists and 8 rebounds. This is below his season average of 4.1 made threes per game, as he has hit just 21.8% of his threes in his last five games. Over his last five games, P.J. Washington is averaging 10.8 points and 5 rebounds. For the season, he is averaging 12.9 points and 5.6 rebounds.

Dallas is 3rd in the league in both three-point attempts and three-point makes, averaging 14.6 made threes per game. Overall, they have hit 36% of their threes, which is 15th in the NBA. The Mavericks are averaging 117.9 points per game for the season, which is 8th in the league.

So far this season, the Dallas Mavericks have been a middle-of-the-pack defensive team, ranking 18th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 114.6. On the road, they have been slightly worse, allowing 115.0 points per game, which is 16th in the league.

Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even better on the defensive end, giving up just 98.6 points per game, which is 4th in the NBA over that span. During this stretch, opponents have shot just 43.1% from the field and 35% from three-point range.

For the season, opponents have made more threes than their season average in 61% of games against the Mavericks. Dallas is also 20th in the league in personal fouls per game.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 24.8 points per game over his last five games while hitting 47.4% of his shots from the field. In these games, he also averaged 5.2 assists and 5 rebounds. For the season, he is averaging 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds. Jalen Williams is averaging 18.8 points per game over his last five games and 19.1 points for the season.

For the season, the Thunder are averaging 120.1 points per game and 122.5 points per game at home. This is the 2nd best mark in the league. Looking at their three-point shooting, the Thunder lead the league with a three-point shooting percentage of 38%.

When it comes to defense, the Thunder have been one of the best in the league this season, ranking 10th in points allowed per game at 111.6. At home, they have been even better, giving up just 109.3 points per game, which is 7th in the NBA.

Over their last five games, the Thunder have been the best defense in the league, allowing just 88.8 points per game. During this stretch, they have also been the best at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 25.4% from beyond the arc.

On the season, opponents have made more threes than their season average vs. the Thunder in 57.3% of games. However, they have done a good job of keeping opponents off the free-throw line, ranking 23rd in free throws made allowed per game at 22.6.

Betting Trends

• In their last three road games, Dallas has averaged 105 points per game while allowing 98. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Oklahoma City has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 108 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
• Through their last five games as the underdog, the Mavericks have an ATS record of 4-1 and a straight-up mark of 4-1.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Thunder have a strong straight up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 3-0 in these scenarios.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Aside from game one of their first series vs. the Pelicans, where they won by just two points, the Thunder dominated the rest of the series and had just one other game with a scoring margin of less than +10 points. And looking back to the regular season matchups between these teams, the Thunder took three of four and each of the last two games. My pick for game one is to take OKC at -3.5 points.

Bankroll hurting? Fix that problem today by scoring a 100% sportsbook bonus from one of many top tier sportsbooks!