NBA Picks: Hawks vs. Heat Betting Predictions |12/22/23

Atlanta Hawks (12-15 SU, 7-20 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (16-12 SU, 12-15 ATS)

When: Friday, December 22nd, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Kaseya Center, FL, Miami

TV: BSSU

Point Spread: Atl +2/Mia -2

Total: 236.5

Money Line: Atlanta Hawks +101/-122

Notable Injuries

Hawks

• Jalen Johnson (Out) Wrist
• AJ Griffin (Out) Personal
• Mouhamed Gueye (Out) Back
• Kobe Bufkin (Out) Thumb

Heat

• Jimmy Butler (Out) Calf
• Dru Smith (Out) Knee

Recent Form

As they look to take on the Heat, the Hawks have a 12-15 record and are below .500. In their road games, the Hawks are 8-8, while going 4-7 at home.

So far this season, the Heat have an overall record of 16-12 and are 9-6 on the road. In their last three games, they are 2-1 and are 7-6 in their home games.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last five head-to-head matchups, the Hawks and Heat have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 0 points per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Atlanta. Over the course of these games, they averaged 232 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

Analysis

Atlanta’s offense is coming off a strong performance, scoring 134 points against the Rockets. They had an overall field goal percentage of 51.6% and made 23/28 free throws. Offensively, the Hawks hold a season-long field goal percentage of 47%, placing them 12th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 6th in terms of percentage and 7th in three-pointers made.

The Hawks’ defense is presently ranked 28 in the league, allowing an average of 122.9 points per contest.

In terms of two-point field goal attempts, the Hawk’s defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 58.1% while allowing 38.6% from downtown.

The Heat’s offense wrapped up their last game with 115 points, aligning closely with their current season average of 112.9 points per contest. In terms of offense, the Heat have a season-long field goal percentage of 47%, putting them 15th in the NBA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 1st in percentage and 12th in three-pointers made.

At present, the Heat’s defense is ranked 9, allowing 111.8 points per game.

Opponents are hitting 56.0% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 37.8% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road games, Atlanta has an ATS record of just 3-7. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 122 points per game.
• Across their ten previous home games, Miami has an ATS mark of 6-3-1. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 7-3 while averaging 111 points per game.
• As the betting underdog, the Hawks have an ATS record of 2-1 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 2-1.
• Over the team’s last five games as the favorite, the Heat struggled vs the spread going just 1-4. However, they still had a straight-up mark of 3-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Without Jimmy Butler, I see this as a great spot to take the Hawks to cover. The Hawks are coming off two straight wins, and even though they have covered the spread just seven times this season, I see them winning this one straight-up. Look for Trae Young to build off his 30-point game vs. the Rockets and lead Atlanta to the win.