NBA Picks: Bulls vs. Bucks Predictions 4/5/23

Chicago Bulls (38-41 SU, 40-39-0 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (57-22 SU, 41-32-6 ATS)
When: Wednesday, April 5th, 7:30 PM (ET)
Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Chi +7.5/Mil -7.5
Total: 231.5
Money Line: Chicago Bulls +234/-294

Notable Injuries

Bulls

• Alex Caruso (Probable) Foot
• Lonzo Ball (Out) Knee
• Javonte Green (Probable) Knee
• Justin Lewis (Out) ACL

Bucks

• Khris Middleton (Out) Injury Management
• Meyers Leonard (Probable) Calf
• Pat Connaughton (Doubtful) Ankle
• Grayson Allen (Out) Ankle
• Jevon Carter (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Chicago is 38-41 overall. When taking to the road, Chicago has a mark of 17-22 and a win percentage of 44%. Currently, the team is 10th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 40-39-0 vs the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs the spread, they are 2-3 in their past 5 games and 2-3 ATS. Over their past 10 games, they are 6-4 SU and 6-4 ATS.

Chicago most recently lost to the Hawks by a score of 123-105. The team high 26 points from Zach LaVine was not enough to come away with the win. The Bulls were 6-point favorites going into the game.

Heading into the game, Milwaukee is 57-22 overall. When playing at home, Milwaukee has a mark of 31-8 and a win percentage of 79%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 41-32-6 vs. the spread. Milwaukee will look to stay hot in today’s game vs. Chicago as they are the winners of 2 straight games.

In their last outing, the Bucks emerged victorious against the Wizards, winning by a score of 140-128. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team in scoring with 28 points. The Milwaukee team was not able to cover the spread as 14-point favorites.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Bulls picked up the win 118-113 win over the Bucks. Heading into the game, Chicago was the 7.0-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. So far this season, the Bulls have a record of 2-1 vs. the Bucks. Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Bucks have averaged 114 points per game compared to 106 for Chicago. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Milwaukee. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 220 points per game.

Analysis

This year, the Chicago offense is not only near the NBA average in points at 113.5 points per game, but they are also playing at a pace similar to the league average. So far, the Bulls are ranked 17th in possessions per contest. Chicago comes into the game ranked just 30th in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 36.3% of their shots from deep, which places them 30th in the NBA. On defense, the Bulls are allowing an average of 112.0 points per game, placing them 17th in the league. So far, teams have shot 36.4% on their looks from outside vs Chicago. This figure places them 23rd in 3-point shooting defense.

Coming into today’s game, Zach LaVine is the leading scorer for Chicago at 25.1 points per game. This season, LaVine has a field goal percentage of 48.8%. The team’s second-leading scorer is DeMar DeRozan at 24.9 points per contest.

This season, Milwaukee is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 117.3 points per game. So far, the Bucks are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 100.9 possessions per game. Milwaukee’s offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 10th in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.7%. On defense, the Bucks are allowing an average of 112.13 points per game, placing them 19th in the league. So far, opposing teams are hitting 35.73% of their looks from deep vs Milwaukee.

Coming into today’s game, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the leading scorer for Milwaukee at 31.1 points per game. This season, Antetokounmpo has a field goal percentage of 55.3%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jrue Holiday at 19.2 points per contest.

Betting Trends

• Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home.
• Bulls are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
• Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six Wednesday games.
• Bucks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Finding games with any betting value at this point in the season is difficult! The variables change, with some teams needing wins and others tanking. In this case, both teams played last night and had to travel so we may see some tired legs and sloppiness. In early betting action, 69% of the public is betting the over 231. Between the second game of a back-to-back, the line getting hammered by the public yet not moving and the fact that nationally televised games oftentimes have inflated lines, I’m betting the UNDER 231.