NBA Picks: Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers Game 4

Boston Celtics (64-18 SU, 48-43 ATS) vs. Indiana Pacers (47-35 SU, 53-43 ATS)

When: Monday, May 27th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Bos -7.5/Ind +7.5

Total: 222.5

Money Line: Boston Celtics -297/+239

Notable Injuries

Celtics

• Jrue Holiday (Questionable) Illness
• Kristaps Porzingis (Out) Calf
• Luke Kornet (Questionable) Wrist

Pacers

• Tyrese Haliburton (Questionable) Hamstring
• Bennedict Mathurin (Out) Shoulder

The Celtics head into game four of the Eastern Conference Finals leading the series 3-0. The top-seeded Celtics will face the 6th-seeded Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Tip-off is set for 8:00 PM ET. The game is being televised on ESPN, with the Celtics favored by -7.5 points. The over/under is 222.5 points.

The Celtics picked up a 114-111 win in the most recent game of this series against the Pacers. Heading into the game, the Celtics were favored by 7 points, but the Pacers covered the spread. The Celtics won the game despite being outscored 38-25 in the 2nd quarter. The Celtics picked up a 33-21 win in the 4th quarter. Going into the game, the over/under line was at 220.5 points, and the teams combined for 225 points.

Jayson Tatum had a big game for the Celtics, scoring 36 points and knocking down five threes. Tatum also had 10 rebounds and eight assists. The Celtics made 16 threes as a team, and they shot 34.8% from three. Indiana made just five threes and shot 22.7% from beyond the arc. Andrew Nembhard led the Pacers with 32 points, and T.J. McConnell added 23 points.

Recent Form

The Celtics are currently on a 6-game winning streak and have a record of 64-18, which is the best in the Eastern Conference. In non-conference games, they are 23-7 compared to 41-11 against the East.

On the road, the Celtics are 32-14 this season and have won five straight games away from home. Their straight-up road record is 22-22, and they have an ATS record of 22-22 on the road.

In terms of their O/U record, the Celtics are 51-43-1 for the season. The over has hit in their last five games, and their games have averaged 227.5 points per game.

In their most recent game, the Celtics defeated the Pacers by a score of 114-111. Boston was favored by 7 points in that game and is also favored by 7.5 points today. The O/U line for their last game was 220.5.

In their last game vs. the Pacers, the Celtics were favored by 7 points and won by three. However, they did not cover the spread. This season, the Celtics are 46-41 ATS as the favorite and 2-2 ATS as the favorite on the road.

Indiana has lost three straight games and is looking to get back on track against the Celtics. In their most recent game, the Pacers lost to Boston by a score of 114-111.

This season, Indiana has an O/U record of 54-44 and the over has hit in five straight games. On average, their games have finished with 241 points, which is 18.5 points higher than today’s line of 222.5.

As the underdog, the Pacers are 23-24 straight-up and 28-17 against the spread. Today, they are 7.5-point underdogs and have gone 3-3 ATS as the underdog.

Indiana’s ATS record at home is 27-20, and they have covered the spread in their last three home games. On average, the Pacers have outscored their opponents by 7.6 points per game at home.

In the Eastern Conference standings, the Pacers are currently in 6th place with a record of 47-35. Against the East, they are 32-20 and 11-6 against other teams in the Central Division.

The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Pacers have gone 4-1, but the Celtics actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Boston has averaged 126 points per contest, while allowing 121. The over-under record in these same games is 5-0, with the teams combining for an average of 247 points per game.

Analysis

For the season, Jayson Tatum is averaging 26.9 points per game and 3.1 made threes per contest. Over his last five games, he has hit 48.2% of his shots from the field and 30.6 points per game. In these games, he also averaged 9.8 rebounds and 6.2 assists. Jaylen Brown is averaging 25.6 points per game in his last five games while hitting 52.8% of his shots from the field.

Boston’s offense is averaging 120.6 points per game this season, which is the second-best mark in the league. Their scoring average on the road is even better, at 116.8 points per game. The Celtics lead the league in three-point shooting percentage, at 38%, and are also first in three-pointers made per game, at 16.5.

When it comes to defense, the Boston Celtics have been one of the best units in the NBA this season, ranking 4th in points allowed per game. That number has held steady on the road, where they are giving up just 108.9 points per contest.

One area where the Celtics have excelled is in keeping opponents off the free-throw line, ranking 1st in made free-throws allowed per game. Over their last five games, they have been even better in that department, allowing just 9.6 made free-throws per contest.

Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 79.3% of games vs. the Celtics this season. However, when it comes to three-point shooting, teams have made more threes than their season average vs. Boston in 53.7% of games.

Indiana comes into the game as the NBA’s top-scoring offense, averaging 123.3 points per game. In their home games, they are at 124.4 points per contest. The Pacers have outscored the league average in 84.1% of their games. Looking at their team shooting numbers, the Pacers are at 50% from the field and 58% on two-point shots, both of which are the best marks in the league.

Over their last five games, the Pacers have had some good scoring production from Pascal Siakam, who is averaging 23.8 points on 56.4% shooting. Andrew Nembhard is at 19 points per game in this stretch while hitting 52.4% of his threes. Myles Turner is averaging 17.4 points per game in this stretch on 59.6% shooting. Bennedict Mathurin is out with a shoulder injury, averaging 14.5 points per game. Tyrese Haliburton is questionable with a hamstring injury and averaging 20.1 points and 10.9 assists.

The Pacers’ defense has struggled this season, ranking 27th in points allowed per game at 119.1. They have been especially bad at defending the three-point line, leading the NBA in fewest made threes allowed per game at 11.0.

Indiana’s defense has been able to force turnovers this season, ranking 17th in steals per game at 7.7. They have also been solid at protecting the rim, ranking 8th in blocked shots per game.

Opposing teams have been able to score above their season average in 76.8% of games vs. the Pacers. They have also been able to get to the free-throw line at a high rate, ranking 30th in made free throws allowed per game at 25.6.

Betting Trends

• Through their last three road contests, the Celtics offense has averaged 109 points per game while allowing an average of 102. Boston posted an overall record of 3-0 while going 1-2 ATS.
• In their last three home games, Indiana has averaged 122 points per game while allowing 122. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-2 while going 2-1.
• Through their last three games as the betting underdog, the Pacers have a strong record vs the spread going 2-1. Their straight up mark in these contests is 0-3.
• Through their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Celtics have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-4.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Boston is just one game away from making their way to the NBA Finals and come into game four favored by -7.5 points. Going back to game one, the Pacers put up a good fight, and we saw them run out of steam in game two and were blown out. I see something similar playing out tonight, as the Pacers nearly pulled off an upset on Saturday, but I think they will have a tough time hanging around in game four. I like Boston -7.5.