NBA Picks and Predictions: Rockets vs. Bucks for Dec 17, 2023

Houston Rockets (13-9 SU, 16-5 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (18-7 SU, 11-14 ATS)

When: Sunday, December 17th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: BSW

Point Spread: Hou +7/Mil -7

Total: 230.5

Money Line: Houston Rockets +225/-280

Notable Injuries

Rockets

• Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
• Jae’Sean Tate (Questionable) Illness
• Amen Thompson (Questionable) Illness

Bucks

• Khris Middleton (Questionable) Knee
• Jae Crowder (Out) Groin
• Malik Beasley (Questionable) Illness

Recent Form

Coming into today’s matchup vs. the Bucks, the Rockets are looking to build on their above .500 record of 13-9. In the Western Conference, the Rockets are currently ranked 7th and sit 2nd in the Southwest division.

As they prepare to take on the Rockets, the Bucks are looking to stay above .500. So far, they are 18-7 and are 2nd in the Eastern Conference. In the Central division, they are in 1st place.

The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Rockets have gone 3-2, but the Bucks actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Milwaukee has averaged 121 points per contest, while allowing 111. The over-under record in these same games is 4-1, with the teams combining for an average of 232 points per game.

Analysis

The Rockets’ offense, in their latest game, managed to score just 103 points versus the Grizzlies. During the game, they attempted 29 three-point shots and had a field goal percentage of 36.4%. Dillon Brooks was the leading scorer for the Rockets, putting up 26 points. In addition, Fred VanVleet contributed 16 points.

At this time, the Rockets’ defense is positioned 1st in the NBA, permitting 105.1 points per game.

In terms of two point field goal attempts, the Rockets defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 51.7% while allowing 30.9% from downtown.

In their latest game, Milwaukee’s offense looked good, scoring 146 points against the Pistons. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 56.8% and made 27/32 free throws. Currently leading the team in scoring is Giannis Antetokounmpo who comes into today’s matchup averaging 31.6. Damian Lillard also heads into the game with a PPG average of 25.2.

Facing Houston, the Bucks aim for a better defensive performance, given their current average of 119.2 points allowed per game (23rd).

In the terms of takeaways, the Bucks are causing 13.3 turnovers per game, ranking 16th in the league. They also enter the matchup ranked 10th in rejections, averaging 5.8 blocked shots each game.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Houston has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 104 points per game.
• Milwaukee has played well in their previous five home games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 126 points per game while allowing 118. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Rockets have a straight-up record of 4-6. But, their mark vs the spread was just 7-2-1.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 8-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 5-5.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Rockets come into this matchup having won 5 straight games but are 7-point underdogs against a Bucks team that just put up 146 points vs. the Pistons. Look for the Rockets to give the Bucks some trouble tonight, as this veteran team might struggle playing on back-to-back nights. I like Houston at +7.