NBA Pick: Thunder at Pelicans Game 3

Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25 SU, 48-36 ATS) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (49-33 SU, 45-40 ATS)

When: Saturday, April 27th, 3:30 PM (ET)

Where: Smoothie King Center, LA, New Orleans

TV: TNT

Point Spread: OKC -1/NO +1

Total: 208

Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -115/-106

Notable Injuries

Thunder

None

Pelicans

• Zion Williamson (Out) Hamstring

Game three of this first-round Western Conference series between the Thunder and Pelicans is set for 3:30 PM ET at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. TNT is carrying the game on TV, and the Thunder are up 2-0 in the series. The Thunder are the slight favorite on the road, with the spread favoring them by one point. The over/under line is sitting at 208 points, and the Thunder are -115 on the money line compared to the Pelicans at -106.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder were able to get a big win in the most recent game of this series, as they blew out the Pelicans by a score of 124-92. Oklahoma City was favored by 7.5 points heading into the game and easily covered the spread. The Thunder really took control of the game in the 4th quarter, as they outscored the Pelicans 32-18 in the final quarter.

Gilgeous-Alexander had a big game for the Thunder, as he finished with 33 points. Chet Holmgren also had a big game for the Thunder, as he had 26 points. The Thunder shot the ball well from the field, as they made 59% of their shots. New Orleans, on the other hand, made just 26.9% of their threes.

Recent Form

The Thunder are favored by 1 point today against the Pelicans. This season, Oklahoma City has been favored in 63 of their 82 games and have gone 49-14 in those games. As the favorite, they have a scoring differential of +10.6 points per game.

Oklahoma City’s ATS record as the favorite is 36-27, and they have covered the spread in their last 8 games as the favorite. On the road, they are 20-21 ATS compared to 28-15 at home.

In their last game against the Pelicans, the Thunder won 124-92 and covered the spread as 7.5-point favorites. The O/U line for that game was 210.5, and the teams combined for 216 points.

This season, the Thunder have an O/U record of 45-38-1, and their games have averaged a combined 232 points. Today’s O/U line is set at 208, and the Thunder have played to an average of 231.8 points per game.

Oklahoma City is currently in 1st place in the Western Conference with a record of 57-25. Against the West, they are 36-16 and 21-9 against non-conference opponents. On the road, the Thunder are 24-17.

In their last game, the Pelicans were 7.5-point underdogs against the Thunder and lost by a score of 124-92. The O/U line for that game was 210.5 points.

Coming into today’s game as 1-point underdogs, the Pelicans have gone 18-16 as the underdog this season. In their last two games as the underdog, they have failed to cover the spread.

In terms of their O/U record for the season, the Pelicans are 38-48, and 84 of their games have had higher O/U lines than today’s line of 208. On average, their games have seen 224.8 points scored.

This season, the Pelicans are 45-40 against the spread, including a 21-21 record at home and 24-19 on the road. As the underdog, their ATS record is 21-13, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games.

Currently, the Pelicans are 8th in the Western Conference with a record of 49-33. In their division, they are in 2nd place. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 30-22 and 19-11 against the East.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Thunder. In these matchups, Oklahoma City has averaged 110 points per game, while allowing 97. Over the course of these games, they averaged 207 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

Analysis

This season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.1 points per game to go along with 6.2 assists and 5.5 rebounds. Over his last five games, he has hit 49.5% of his shots from the field and 25 points. Chet Holmgren is averaging 16.5 points and 7.9 rebounds for the season but has averaged 17 points in his last five games on a field goal percentage of 58.9%.

Oklahoma City comes into the game as the NBA’s 3rd ranked scoring offense, at 120.1 points per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 122.5 points per contest. The Thunder are also near the top of the league in both field goal percentage and three-point shooting percentage.

On the season, the Thunder are giving up 112.2 points per game, which is 11th in the NBA. On the road, that number jumps slightly to 115.2 points per game, which is 15th.

Over their last five games, Oklahoma City has been the top defense in the league, allowing just 93.2 points per game. During this stretch, they have been especially stingy from beyond the arc, giving up just 27% shooting from three.

For the season, opponents have been able to make 13.3 three-pointers per game against the Thunder, which is 21st in the NBA. On the year, opposing offenses have shot 45.5% from the field vs. Oklahoma City, which is 3rd in the league.

New Orleans comes into the game as the NBA’s 16th-ranked scoring offense, at 115.1 points per game. On their home floor, they are also 16th in the league, at 114.4 points per contest. Looking at their pace, the Pelicans are 18th in the league, averaging 97.3 possessions per game.

Brandon Ingram is averaging 15.6 points per game over his last five games on a shooting percentage of 44.1%. In these games, he also averaged 3.2 assists and 5 rebounds. For the season, Ingram is averaging 20.8 points, 5.7 assists, and 5.1 rebounds. Trey Murphy III has averaged 4.8 rebounds in his last five games and 13.6 points.

When it comes to defense, the Pelicans have been one of the better units in the NBA this season. They are 8th in the league in points allowed per game at 110.5. They have been even better on the road, ranking 3rd in the NBA at 109.9 points per game. However, at home, they have slipped a bit, coming in at 111.1 points per game, which is 12th in the NBA.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Pelicans have been vulnerable, ranking 24th in the league in three-point shooting percentage allowed. Opponents have also attempted the 2nd fewest three-pointers per game against the Pelicans this season.

One area where the Pelicans have been strong is in steals, ranking 3rd in the NBA in steals per game. They have also been solid on the glass, coming in at 11th in the league in rebounds per game.

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road contests, the Thunder offense has averaged 110 points per game while allowing an average of 120. Oklahoma City posted an overall record of 2-3 while going 0-5 ATS.
• Across their last five home contests, New Orleans has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 108 points per game.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, New Orleans has an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 5-5 straight up.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Thunder have a strong straight up record of 5-0. In addition, their ATS record was 4-1 in these scenarios.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Despite being down 2-0, now that the series has shifted to New Orleans, the Pelicans are just +1 point underdogs against the Thunder. Although they will be on their home court could give them an early boost, I think the Thunder are just too good and aren’t going to mess around in this series. Without Zion Williamson, the Pelicans just don’t have enough scoring and athleticism inside. I’m taking OKC at -1.