NBA Pick: Mavericks vs. Spurs 3/15/23

Dallas Mavericks (34-35 SU, 25-42-2 ATS) vs. San Antonio Spurs (18-50 SU, 28-40-0 ATS)
When: Wednesday, March 15th, 8:30 PM (ET)
Where: AT&T Center, TX, San Antonio
TV: KENS

Point Spread: Dal -5.5/SA +5.5 (Bet your NBA picks at -105 odds instead of -110 by taking 3 minutes to make the switch to BAS Sportsbook!)
Total: 233.5
Money Line: Dall -222/S.A. +183

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Kyrie Irving (Questionable) Foot
• Tim Hardaway Jr. (Questionable) Calf
• Christian Wood (Questionable) Foot
• Luka Doncic (Out) Thigh

Spurs

• Khem Birch (Out) Knee
• Romeo Langford (Out) Injury Management
• Keldon Johnson (Questionable) Foot
• Tre Jones (Out) Illness
• Malaki Branham (Out) Shoulder

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Dallas is 34-35 overall. When taking to the road, Dallas has a mark of 12-21 and a win percentage of 36%. Currently, the team is 9th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 25-42-2 vs the spread. Dallas travels to take on the Spurs, hoping to avoid their 4th straight loss.

In their last outing, Dallas was unable to come away with a win against the Grizzlies, losing by a score of 104-88. Jaden Hardy led the team with 28 points, but it was not enough to overcome their status as 4-point underdogs. The Mavericks also ended up with an ATS loss in the game.

Heading into the game, San Antonio is 18-50 overall. When playing at home, San Antonio has a mark of 12-23 and a win percentage of 34%. Currently, the team is 14th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 28-40-0 vs the spread. In San Antonio’s last 5 games, the Spurs have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 4-6 and 4-6 ATS.

In their upcoming game, San Antonio will be looking to capitalize on their recent win over the Magic. Jeremy Sochan led the way for the Spurs with 29 points. Despite being 6-point underdogs on the spread, the Spurs were able to secure an ATS win.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Mavericks picked up a 126-125 win over the Spurs. However, heading into the game, Dallas was favored to win by 7.0 points, giving the Spurs and ATS victory. So far this season, the Mavericks have a record of 2-0 vs the Spurs. In terms of betting vs the spread, the Spurs have gone 3-2, but the Mavericks actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Dallas has averaged 126 points per contest while allowing 115. A combined average of 241 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 4-0-1.

Analysis

This season, the Mavericks’ offense is averaging 113.5 points per game, which is 18th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Dallas has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 96.8 possessions per game. Dallas’ offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 10th in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.9%. Defensively, the Mavericks have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 104.72 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.98%.

Dallas will be dealing with some injuries today. Luka Doncic has already been ruled out. This year, Doncic is averaging 33.0 for the Mavericks. The big question mark will be if Kyrie Irving will be available. Currently, he is questionable and is averaging 27.2 points per game this year.

For the season, San Antonio is averaging just 112.3 points per game, which is 24th in the league. This below-average production has come despite being one of the faster-paced teams in the NBA (6th). San Antonio has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 24th in 3-point shooting percentage at 34.4%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 31.2 attempts per contest. Defense has been a struggle for San Antonio, as they are currently allowing 113.04 points per game. In terms of their 3-point defense, opposing teams have hit 35.84% of their looks from deep, placing the Spurs 20th in the NBA.

For this upcoming matchup with the Mavericks, bettors should keep a close eye on the injury report for the Spurs, as they may be without two of their top scorers. Tre Jones is already listed as out, while Keldon Johnson is questionable. If he is able to play, Keldon Johnson will likely be more assertive on offense, as he is 43rd in the NBA in usage rate and has accounted for 18.9% of the team’s field goal attempts, averaging 21.6 points per game.

Betting Trends

• The Mavericks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
• The Spurs are 17-38-2 ATS in their last 57 Wednesday games.
• The Spurs are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games overall.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Spurs are supposed to be tanking, but they’re not! The Mavs are playing poor basketball as well. The difference between winning and losing at NBA handicapping is the ability to decipher what should happen vs. what can happen. Unbelievably, the Spurs CAN win this game, so I’m betting them at +5.5! Bet your NBA picks live-in-progress during the game at the web’s best sportsbook and get a 50% real cash bonus too! —> Bovada Sportsbook!