NBA Moneyline Pick: Thunder vs. Pelicans

Oklahoma City Thunder (31-13 SU, 30-14 ATS) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (26-18 SU, 25-19 ATS)

When: Friday, January 26th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Smoothie King Center, LA, New Orleans

TV: BSNO

Point Spread: OKC +2.5/NO -2.5

Total: 241

Money Line: Oklahoma City Thunder +115/-138

Notable Injuries

Thunder

• Olivier Sarr (Out) Hip Flexor

Pelicans

• Matt Ryan (Out) Elbow

At 8:00 ET, the New Orleans Pelicans (-138) will host the Oklahoma City Thunder (+115) in a Western Conference matchup. The Pelicans are favored by 2.5 points and will be looking to improve their 6th place standing in the West. The Thunder are 2nd in the West and have won four straight games.

This game will be played at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans and can be seen on BSNO. The over/under line for this game is 241 points.

Recent Form

The Thunder have won four straight games and are 31-13 on the season. In the Western Conference, they are 2nd, and they are also 2nd in the Northwest Division.

Oklahoma City covered the spread in their last game, winning 140-114 as 9-point favorites vs. the Spurs. This improved their ATS record to 30-14 for the season.

For the year, the Thunder have a 14-8 ATS record on the road, and they have covered the spread in their last three road games. As the underdog, they are 11-5 ATS on the road and 9-7 overall.

In their games this season, the Thunder have an average scoring line of 235.5 points, which is lower than today’s O/U line of 241. Their O/U record for the season is 25-19.

Overall, the Thunder have gone 19-9 vs. the spread as the favorite and have been the underdog in 16 of their games. Today, they are 2.5-point underdogs.

In their last game, the Thunder beat the Spurs by a score of 140-114, which easily went over the O/U line of 241.

The Pelicans have an O/U record of 22-22 this season, and their games have averaged 230 points per game. Today’s line of 241 is the highest of the season for New Orleans.

When favored, the Pelicans are 15-10 straight-up and 13-12 against the spread. In these games, they have an average scoring margin of +7.7 points per game.

New Orleans covered the spread in their last game, beating the Jazz by a score of 153-124. The O/U line for that game was 240 points.

In the Western Conference, the Pelicans are currently in 6th place with a record of 26-18. In games against other Western Conference teams, they are 18-16 and 8-2 against the East.

At home, the Pelicans have an average scoring margin of +5.8 points per game. Their ATS record at home is 14-9, and they are 14-9 straight-up. On the road, they are 12-9 straight-up and 11-10 ATS.

The Historicals

Spanning across the last 5 head-to-head matchups, the Thunder and Pelicans have been competitive, with an average margin of victory sitting at just 1 point per game. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for New Orleans. Over the course of these games, they averaged 223 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Thunder are one of the most potent offenses in the league, averaging 121.9 points per game, which is 3rd in the NBA. This season, they have outscored the NBA scoring average in 72.7% of their games. On the road, they are averaging 119.9 points per game.

So far, the Thunder are shooting 50% from the field, which is 2nd in the NBA. They are also one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league, hitting 39% of their attempts from beyond the arc.

When it comes to getting to the free-throw line, the Thunder are 16th in the league in attempts, averaging 22.6 per game. In terms of pace, they are 10th in the NBA at 99.8 possessions per game.

Coming into today’s game, the Thunder’s defense is giving up an average of 113.6 points per contest. On two-point field goal attempts, the Thunder’s defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 51.3% and allowing 36.2% from beyond the arc.

At home, the Pelicans are averaging 117.6 points per game, which is 12th in the NBA. Overall, they are 12th in scoring at 117.5 points per game. They have outscored the NBA scoring average in 54.5% of their games.

New Orleans is 8th in field goal percentage at 48% and 8th in true shooting percentage. They are 5th in three-point shooting at 38% and 23rd in three-point attempts. In terms of pace, the Pelicans are 19th at 98.3 possessions per game.

When it comes to assists, New Orleans is 11th in the league at 27.2 per game. They are also 7th in free throws made and 5th in free throw attempts. In terms of offensive rebounds, the Pelicans are 10th in the NBA.

So far, the Pelicans’ defense is ranked 10th in the league at 112.5 points per contest. In their previous game, the Pelicans’ defense struggled against the Jazz, giving up 124 points on a field goal percentage of 46%.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Thunder have a straight up record of 6-4 while going 5-5 vs. the spread. The team averaged 123 points per game in this stretch.
• The Pelicans are 3-2 ATS in their last home games and 3-2 straight-up.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Thunder have a straight up record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-2.
• As the betting favorite, the Pelicans have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 3-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

This Thunder vs Pelicans matchup is one of the tightest point spreads of today’s slate of games, with the Pelicans being favored by -2.5 points at home. I’m going with the Thunder to not only cover the spread but pick up the win on the moneyline with a payout of +115.