NBA Betting: Nuggets vs Suns Prediction & Pick Analysis 12/1/23

Denver Nuggets (13-6 SU, 7-11 ATS) vs. Phoenix Suns (11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS)

When: Friday, December 1st, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Footprint Center, AZ, Phoenix

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Den -2.5/Pho +2.5

Total: 224

Money Line: Mile High City -141/City of the Sun +117

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Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Aaron Gordon (Questionable) Heel
• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Ankle
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee
• Peyton Watson (Probable) Illness

Suns

• Bradley Beal (Out) Lower Back
• Devin Booker (Questionable) Ankle
• Damion Lee (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Looking at the Nuggets’ previous ten games, they are 5-5 and face the Suns with an overall mark of 13-6. During their 19 games, the Nuggets have gone 11-4 against teams in the Western Conference and 2-2 in non-conference matchups.

The Suns head into today’s action with an overall record of 11-7 and have gone 3-0 over their previous three games. Across 18 games, the Suns have an 8-5 record when facing Western Conference teams, and they have a 3-2 record in non-conference games.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 3-2 in favor of the Nuggets. In these matchups, Denver has averaged 115 points per game while allowing 107. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-3. Combined, they averaged 222 points in these games.

Analysis

In their latest game, the Nuggets offense put up 134 points against the Rockets. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 50.5% and made 19 threes. The team’s scoring leader is Nikola Jokic, who holds an average of 29 as they head into today’s matchup. Additionally, Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 17.6 points per game this season.

At present, the Nuggets’ defense is ranked 7th, allowing 109.7 points per game.

When it comes to forced turnovers, the Nuggets are forcing 12.2 per game, which is 5th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 16th in blocked shots at 5.2 per game.

The Suns offense is coming off a game in which they scored 105 points vs. the Raptors. Overall, their field goal percentage was 40.4% while connecting on 7 threes. In terms of three-point shooting, the Suns offense has been good from outside, hitting 38% of their three-pointers on an average of 32.8 attempts per game. Their overall field goal percentage is currently 47%.

Phoenix’s defense is currently in line with the NBA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 113.2 points per game.

When it comes to forced turnovers, the Suns are forcing 14.2 per game, which is 22nd in the league. They also come into the game sitting 1st in blocked shots at 7.1 per game.

Betting Trends

• Across the Nuggets’ last five road games, the team averaged 106 points per game while allowing 111. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-4, while going 2-3 straight-up.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Phoenix has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 120 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
• In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Suns have a straight-up record of 2-8 and an ATS mark of 4-6.
• Against the spread, the Nuggets have put together of 1-3-1 in their last five games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 3-2 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Tonight’s NBA schedule caps off with an excellent matchup between the Nuggets and Suns. Keep an eye on the injury report, as several key players on both sides are listed as questionable, but right now, the Nuggets are favored by 2.5. As long as Jamal Murray is able to give it a go, I like Denver to pick up the win and cover. Look for a huge game from Nikola Jokic, as the Suns won’t be able to slow him down inside.

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