NBA Best Bet: Phoenix Suns vs. Sacramento Kings 4/12/24

Phoenix Suns (47-33 SU, 34-45 ATS) vs. Sacramento Kings (45-35 SU, 40-40 ATS)

When: Friday, April 12th, 10:30 PM (ET)

Where: Golden 1 Center, CA, Sacramento

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Pho -5/Sac +5 (Make laying -110 odds a thing of the past! Lay only -105 at BAS!)

Total: 225.5

Money Line: Phx -198/Sac-Town +163

Notable Injuries

Suns

• Damion Lee (Out) Knee

Kings

• JaVale McGee (Questionable) Illness
• Malik Monk (Out) Knee
• Kevin Huerter (Out) Shoulder
• Jordan Ford (Questionable) Hip

The Kings will host the Suns at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento in a divisional matchup. Sacramento is on a two-game losing streak and 8th in the Western Conference. The Suns are favored by five points and are 7th in the West.

This game will tip-off at 10:30 ET and will be televised on NBCS.

Recent Form

Phoenix is favored by 5 points today and has gone 39-21 as the favorite this season. In Western Conference games, they are 27-23 as the favorite and 8-9 against division opponents.

The Suns have an average scoring differential of +4.9 points per game in their 60 games as the favorite. On the season, they are 47-33 and are 7th in the West.

Phoenix’s ATS record for the season is 34-45, including going 18-21 on the road. They have covered the spread in their last two road games and are 22-17 straight-up on the road.

In their most recent game, the Suns defeated the Clippers by a score of 124-108. The O/U line for that game was 220.5 points, and Phoenix covered the spread as 11.5-point favorites.

This season, the Suns have a record of 35-44-1 on the O/U, and their games have averaged 229.6 points per game. Today’s line of 225.5 is lower than their season average of 231.1.

Sacramento is currently in 8th place in the Western Conference with a record of 45-35. Within the Pacific Division, they are in 3rd place. As the underdog this season, the Kings are 11-15 and have gone 15-11 against the spread as the underdog.

In games against Western Conference opponents, Sacramento is 29-21 compared to 16-14 against the East. This season, they have an ATS record of 40-40, including going 16-23 ATS at home and 24-17 ATS on the road.

The Kings have lost their last two games straight up and are looking to bounce back from a 135-123 loss to the Pelicans. In that game, the O/U line was 217.5, and Sacramento was favored by 1.5 points.

This season, the average O/U line in Kings games is 233.6, and their games have averaged a combined 231.9 points. In today’s game, the O/U line is set at 225.5.

The Historicals

The Kings have had the better record vs the spread over the last five games, going 4-1. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 5 points per game. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-3. Combined, they averaged 239 points in these games.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Suns are 10th in the NBA at 116.2 points per game. Interestingly, they have actually been better on the road, averaging 116.7 points compared to 115.8 at home. Overall, they have outscored the NBA scoring average in 55% of their games.

Phoenix is one of the most efficient shooting teams in the league, ranking 5th in field goal percentage at 49%. They are also 4th in true shooting percentage. When it comes to three-point shooting, the Suns are 6th in the NBA at 38%.

So far this season, the Suns have made an average of 12.4 three-pointers per game, which is 19th in the league. In terms of pace, they are 15th at 98.2 possessions per game.

Coming into the game, the Suns defense has held opposing teams to fewer points than the league average in 41.2% of their games. They are 13th in the NBA at 113.4 points per game allowed. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Suns are forcing 14.1 per game, which is 25th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 5th in blocked shots at 6.1 per game.

Heading into tonight’s game, the Kings are averaging 116.6 points per game, which is 9th in the NBA. At home, Sacramento is scoring 118.8 points per game.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Kings are 4th in the league in made threes at 14.4 per game. Overall, they are hitting 36% of their attempts from beyond the arc.

In terms of pace, Sacramento is 14th in the NBA with an average of 99.2 possessions per game. They are also 7th in two-point field goal percentage at 56%.

Defensively, the Kings come into today’s game ranked 19th in the NBA at 115.3 points per game allowed. However, they have shown signs of improvement lately, ranking 15th in the league over their last three games. The Sacramento defense has allowed opponents to shoot 38.9% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 48.2% of their field goal attempts vs. Sacramento.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Phoenix has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 117 points per game.
• Sacramento has a 2-3 record in their last five home games. In this stretch, they averaged 106 points per game while allowing 103. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• The last three games that Sacramento was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 0-3 straight up.
• Through their last five games as the favorite, the Suns have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight up mark of 3-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

After the Kings lost last night, we now have a three-way tie for the 8th spot in the Western Conference. The Kings have dropped two straight and have a tough matchup vs. the Suns. Not only did last night’s loss drop them into a tie for the 8th seed, but they missed a chance to make tonight’s game really interesting, as the Suns would have been in striking distance for the 7th seed. Although the Kings will be at home, they are playing on back-to-back nights, and the Suns only had to travel from LA after Wednesday’s win over the Clippers. I’m taking the Suns to win and cover at -5.

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