NBA Best Bet: Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings

Dallas Mavericks (42-29 SU, 40-31 ATS) vs. Sacramento Kings (42-29 SU, 36-35 ATS)

When: Tuesday, March 26th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Golden 1 Center, CA, Sacramento

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Dal +1.5/Sac -1.5

Total: 235.5

Money Line: Dallas Mavericks -102/-119

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

• Josh Green (Out) Ankle

Kings

• Trey Lyles (Out) Knee
• Sasha Vezenkov (Questionable) Ankle
• Kevin Huerter (Out) Shoulder

At 10:00 ET, the Sacramento Kings (-119) will host the Dallas Mavericks (-102) in a Western Conference matchup. The Kings (-1.5) are favored in this game, and the over/under line is set at 235.5.

Sacramento (42-29) is currently on a two-game win streak and is 6th in the Western Conference. Dallas (42-29) has won four straight and is 7th in the West.

Recent Form

Currently, the Mavericks are 10-18 as the underdog this season and are 1.5-point underdogs today. In games where they are the underdog, the average scoring margin is -6 points per game.

Dallas has won four straight games and is 7th in the Western Conference with a record of 42-29. In the Western Conference, they have gone 26-19 compared to 16-10 in non-conference games.

In their last game, the Mavericks defeated the Jazz by a score of 115-105. The O/U line for that game was 238.5, and the Mavericks were favored by 7.5 points. This improved their ATS record to 40-31 for the season.

On average, the Mavericks’ games have finished with a combined scoring total of 235.5 points, which is the same as today’s O/U line. This season, the Mavericks have a record of 34-37 on the O/U.

Overall, the Mavericks are 2nd in the Southwest Division and have gone 20-14 on the road this season. Their ATS road record is 22-12, while they are 18-19 ATS at home.

Sacramento has won their last two games at home and are favored by 1.5 points against the Mavericks. In their last game, they covered the spread (-7.5) with a 108-96 win over the 76ers.

The Kings have an O/U record of 34-36-1 for the season, and the under has hit in their last four games. This year, their games have averaged 233.7 points compared to today’s line of 235.5.

Sacramento’s ATS record for the season is 36-35, and they have covered the spread in their last two games. At home, they are 14-20 ATS compared to 22-15 on the road.

This season, the Kings have been favored in 49 of their 71 games and have a record of 31-18 in those games. As the favorite, they are 22-27 ATS with an average scoring margin of +2.4 points per game.

In the Western Conference standings, the Kings are currently 6th with a record of 42-29. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 27-17 and 9-6 against division opponents.

The Historicals

Across the previous 5 meetings between the teams, the Kings have an average scoring margin of +3 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 4-1. A combined average of 243 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

Heading into the game, the Mavericks are one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league, making an average of 14.5 threes per game (3rd). However, they have struggled to convert from inside the arc, ranking just 20th in two-point field goals made.

On the season, Dallas is averaging 118.6 points per game (6th), but they have scored slightly fewer points on the road (117.9 PPG). In terms of pace, the Mavericks are 12th in the league at 99.6 possessions per game.

When it comes to field goal percentage, the Mavericks are 11th in the league at 48%. They have also been efficient from a true shooting perspective, ranking 9th in the NBA.

Currently, the Mavericks’ defense holds the 22nd rank in the NBA, allowing 116.9 points per game. Dallas’ defense is currently forcing 11.8 turnovers per game, which is 7th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 22nd in blocked shots, with an average of 4.7 rejections per game.

When playing at home, the Kings are scoring 119.8 points per game, which is 7th in the NBA. Overall, they are 9th in scoring at 117.6 points per game. In terms of pace, Sacramento is 11th in the league.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Kings are 5th in made threes per game at 14.2. However, their three-point shooting percentage is 18th in the NBA at 36%. In terms of field goal percentage, Sacramento is 12th overall.

So far this season, the Kings have outscored the NBA scoring average in 62% of their games. In terms of assists, they are 6th in the league. When it comes to free throws, Sacramento is 24th in made free throws per game.

Coming into today’s game, the Kings’ defense is giving up an average of 116.1 points per contest. Sacramento’s defense is currently forcing 12.6 turnovers per game, which is 16th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 28th in blocked shots, with an average of 4.2 rejections per game.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Dallas has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 115 points per game.
• Across their ten previous home games, Sacramento has an ATS mark of 6-4. Their straight up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 114 points per game.
• Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Mavericks have a strong record vs the spread going 4-1. Their straight up mark in these contests is 2-3.
• In their last five contests as the favorite, Sacramento has a poor record vs the spread going 2-3. But they still put together a straight-up mark of 3-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

This is one of the tighter point spreads of today’s NBA slate, with the Kings coming in as 1.5 point favorites. I’m counting on some big games from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving tonight and like the Mavs to cover at +1.5 point underdogs as they are taking on a Kings squad that is playing on back to back nights.