NBA ATS Pick: Suns vs. Pelicans April 1

Phoenix Suns (43-31 SU, 30-43 ATS) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (45-29 SU, 40-33 ATS)

When: Monday, April 1st, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Smoothie King Center, LA, New Orleans

TV: BSNO

Point Spread: Pho -1/NO +1

Total: 224

Money Line: Phoenix Suns -115/-105

Notable Injuries

Suns

• Damion Lee (Out) Knee

Pelicans

• Brandon Ingram (Out) Knee
• Jose Alvarado (Out) Hip

At 8:00 ET, the 8th ranked Phoenix Suns (-115) will travel to take on the 6th ranked New Orleans Pelicans (-105) in a Western Conference showdown. The over/under line for this game is 224 points.

The Smoothie King Center in New Orleans will play host to this matchup, and it can be seen on BSNO.

Recent Form

As the 8th seed in the Western Conference, the Suns have a record of 43-31. In the Pacific Division, they are in 3rd place.

On the road, the Suns are 20-17 this season. Their straight-up record as the favorite is 36-19, and they have been favored in 55 of their 74 games. Against the spread, they are 16-21 on the road.

Phoenix’s last game was a 128-103 loss to the Thunder. They were favored by 2.5 points in that game, and the O/U line was 227.5.

This season, the Suns have an O/U record of 33-40-1. In their games, the average combined scoring is 230.8 points, and today’s O/U line is set at 224.

In Western Conference play, the Suns are 24-21 compared to 19-10 against non-conference opponents. Against the spread, they are 30-43 overall and 22-32 as the favorite.

In Pelicans games this season, the average over/under line is 228 points, which is higher than today’s line of 224. The team’s O/U record for the season is 31-43.

New Orleans has gone under the total in their last two games, and 25 of their games have had lower O/U lines than today’s. In the team’s last game vs. the Celtics, they scored a combined 196 points, which was well below the O/U line of 223.5.

Against the spread, the Pelicans are 40-33 for the season and 20-16 ATS at home. As the underdog, they are 17-12 vs. the spread, and they have failed to cover in their last two games as the favorite.

The Pelicans lost their last game to the Celtics by a score of 104-92. In the Western Conference, they are currently in 6th place and 2nd in the Southwest Division. Going into the game, they are 1-point underdogs at home.

New Orleans’ overall record this season is 45-29, and they are 26-19 against other Western Conference teams. On the road, the Pelicans are 24-14 compared to 21-15 at home.

The Historicals

Across the previous 5 meetings between the teams, the Suns have an average scoring margin of +3 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 3-2. In these contests, they averaged a combined 239 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

Analysis

Heading into their matchup against the Pelicans, the Suns are 10th in the NBA in scoring at 116.7 points per game. On the road, they are averaging 116.3 points per game (8th).

Phoenix has outscored the NBA scoring average in 55.4% of their games this season. However, they have scored less than their own average in their last three games.

When it comes to pace, the Suns are 15th in the league at 98.2 possessions per game. In terms of field goal percentage, they are 4th in the NBA at 49%.

The Suns’ defense is presently ranked 16th in the league, allowing an average of 114.1 points per contest. Phoenix struggled on the boards in their last game vs. the Thunder, giving up 13. For the game, Oklahoma City scored 128 points in the game.

At home this season, the Pelicans are averaging 115.5 points per game, which is 15th in the league. Overall, they are 13th in scoring at 115.2 points per game. In terms of pace, New Orleans is 18th in the NBA at 97.4 possessions per game.

When it comes to field goal percentage, the Pelicans are one of the top teams in the league, shooting 48% from the field. In terms of three-point shooting, they are 9th in three-point shooting percentage at 37%. However, they are just 24th in three-point attempts.

So far this season, the Pelicans have outscored the NBA scoring average in 50% of their games. They are also 12th in assists, averaging 27 per game.

Coming into the game, the Pelicans’ defense has finished four straight games with an increased number of points allowed. Overall, they are 8th in the league at 110.3 points per game allowed. Opponents are hitting 55.0% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 34.6% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road games, Phoenix has an ATS record of just 4-6. However, their overall record was 5-5 while averaging 113 points per game.
• Across their ten previous home games, New Orleans has an ATS mark of 5-4-1. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 8-2 while averaging 111 points per game.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Pelicans have a straight-up record of 4-6. But, their mark vs. the spread was just 5-5.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Phoenix has an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 6-4 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The oddsmakers have this one as essentially a pick’em, with the Suns as the 1-point favorite at home. Both teams have a lot of reasons to win this one, as the Pelicans are looking to take hold of the 5th seed, as they are currently tied with the Mavs. On the other end, a Suns win would move them to within one game of the Pelicans and help the Suns break a tie with the Kings for the 7th seed. I’m taking the Suns to pick up a win on the road today.

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