Monday NBA Pick: Blazers vs Pistons 3/6/23

Portland Trail Blazers (30-34 SU, 32-32-0 ATS) vs. Detroit Pistons (15-49 SU, 29-34-1 ATS)
When: Monday, March 6th, 7:00 PM (ET)
Where: Little Caesars Arena, MI, Detroit
TV: BSDE

Point Spread: Por -5.5/Det +5.5
Total: 230.5
Money Line: Portland Trail Blazers -243/+193

Notable Injuries

Trail Blazers

• Jusuf Nurkic (Out) Calf
• Justise Winslow (Out) Ankle
• Ryan Arcidiacono (Out) Back
• Anfernee Simons (Out) Ankle
• Ibou Badji (Out) Knee

Pistons

• Bojan Bogdanovic (Out) Achilles
• Rodney McGruder (Questionable) Ankle
• James Wiseman (Questionable) Knee
• Killian Hayes (Questionable) Hand
• Isaiah Stewart (Out) Hip
• Cade Cunningham (Out) Shin
• Jalen Duren (Out) Ankle

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Portland is 30-34 overall. When taking to the road, Portland has a mark of 13-19 and a win percentage of 41%. Currently, the team is 13th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 32-32-0 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 2-3 in their past five games and 2-3 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 4-6 SU and 4-6 ATS.

In their upcoming game, Portland will be looking to capitalize on their recent win over the Magic. Damian Lillard led the way for the Trail Blazers with 41 points. Despite being 2 point underdogs on the spread, the Trail Blazers were able to secure an ATS win.

Heading into the game, Detroit is 15-49 overall. When playing at home, Detroit has a mark of 8-23 and a win percentage of 26%. Currently, the team is 15th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 29-34-1 vs. the spread. The Pistons need a win in today’s matchup vs. Portland to avoid their 8th straight loss.

Detroit most recently lost to the Cavaliers by a score of 114-90. The team high 20 points from Marvin Bagley III was not enough to come home with the win. The Pistons were 16-point favorites going into the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Trail Blazers picked up the 135-106 win over the Pistons. The Trail Blazers’ margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 9.5 point favorite. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. In terms of betting, Portland has an ATS record of 5-0 in the previous five matchups vs. Detroit. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +18 points per game in favor of the Trail Blazers. Portland and Detroit averaged a combined 224 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

This season, the Trail Blazers’ offense averages 115 points per game, which is 13th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Portland has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.6 possessions per game. Portland’s offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 8th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.4%. The defense has not been a strong point for Portland, as they are currently allowing 115.11 points per game. The team’s 3-point shooting defense has been a problem this year. So far, opposing offenses have hit 36.95% of their looks from the outside.

Coming into today’s game, Damian Lillard is the leading scorer for Portland at 32.5 points per game. This season, Lillard has a field goal percentage of 47.1%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jerami Grant, at 20.7 points per contest.

Coming into the game, Detroit’s offense is ranked just 27th in scoring at 111.4 points per game. This has come while being the 13th-ranked unit in pace. So far, the Pistons are averaging 100.1 possessions per contest. Detroit’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 35.1% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 32.9 3-point shots per game, placing them 15th in the NBA. Defense has been a struggle for Detroit, as they are currently allowing 112.55 points per game. The team’s 3-point shooting defense has been a problem this year. So far, opposing offenses have hit 36.41% of their looks from the outside.

A major injury to note for today’s game is that Detroit will not have Bojan Bogdanovic available, as is already listed as out on the injury report. Jaden Ivey will take on the role of the primary scorer for the team. This season, Ivey is averaging 15.3 points per game for the Pistons.

Betting Trends

• The Trail Blazers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• The Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• The Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on one day of rest.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Portland Trail Blazers have stated they are trying to win and generate a better playoff position. The Detroit Pistons are obviously trying to tank. I’m betting on the Blazers!