Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

Minnesota Timberwolves (32-14 SU, 22-23 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (32-14 SU, 31-15 ATS)

When: Monday, January 29th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, OK, Oklahoma City

TV: BSO

Point Spread: Min +2.5/OKC -2.5

Total: 224.5

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +114/-138

Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

• Mike Conley (Questionable) Hamstring
• Jaylen Clark (Out) Achilles

Thunder

• Tre Mann (Out) Not With Team

At 8:00 ET, the Thunder (-138) will host the Timberwolves (+114) in a Western Northwest divisional matchup. Oklahoma City (-2.5) is currently 1st in the Western Conference with a 32-14 record, while Minnesota is 2nd in the West at 32-14.

The over/under line for this game is 224.5 points. The Thunder are favored by 2.5 points and will be shown on BSO. This game will be played at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.

Recent Form

Minnesota has an O/U record of 23-23 this season, and the under has hit in their last three games. Today’s O/U line is set at 224.5 points, and their games have averaged 220.7 points per game.

Against the spread, the Timberwolves are 22-23 this season, and they have failed to cover in their last two games. On the road, their ATS record is 11-13 compared to 11-10 at home.

Minnesota’s last game finished with a combined score of 225 points, which was below the O/U line of 227.5. They also lost to the Spurs by a score of 113-112, going into the game as 10.5-point favorites.

Overall, the Timberwolves are 32-14 this season, which is good for 2nd place in the Western Conference. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 21-8 and 5-2 in their division. On the road, they are 15-10.

So far this season, Minnesota has been the underdog in 9 of their 46 games. As the underdog, they are 4-5 straight-up and 5-4 ATS. As the underdog, they have a scoring differential of -3.6 points per game.

Oklahoma City is currently leading the Western Conference with a record of 32-14. In the West, they are 20-10 against other teams and 9-2 against opponents in the Northwest Division.

The Thunder are favored by 2.5 points today and have a 23-7 record as the favorite. Their ATS record as the favorite is 20-10 and they are 16-6 ATS at home.

Out of their 46 games this season, 30 of them have seen OKC favored. In those games, they have gone 20-10 against the spread with an average scoring margin of +11.7 points per game.

In their last game, the Thunder lost to the Pistons by a score of 120-104. The O/U line for that game was 237 points, with OKC favored by 12.5. This dropped their ATS record to 31-15 for the season.

Oklahoma City’s O/U record for the season is 25-21, and their games have averaged 234.2 points per game. The team’s last two games have gone under the posted O/U lines.

The Historicals

Through the last 5 matchups between the teams, Oklahoma City has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring margin in these games, an average of just 1 points per game separates the teams. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 1-4. Combined, they averaged 215 points in these games.

Analysis

Heading into their matchup with the Thunder, the Timberwolves are 22nd in the league in scoring at 113.1 points per game. On the road, they are averaging 113.4 points per contest.

Minnesota is 8th in the NBA in field goal percentage at 48% and they are 7th in true shooting percentage. When it comes to three-point shooting, the Timberwolves are 2nd in the league at 39%.

So far this season, the Timberwolves have scored below the NBA scoring average in 56.5% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 25th in the league at 97.5 possessions per game.

So far, the Timberwolves’ defense is ranked 1st in the league at 107.6 points per contest. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Timberwolves are forcing 14.3 per game, which is 27th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 9th in blocked shots at 5.9 per game.

This season, the Thunder are one of the top offensive teams in the NBA, ranking 3rd in scoring at 121.2 points per game. At home, they are averaging 123.9 points per game.

Oklahoma City is one of the top shooting teams in the league, ranking 2nd in field goal percentage at 50%. They are also 3rd in two-point shooting at 57%.

So far, the Thunder have outscored the NBA scoring average in 69.6% of their games. They are also 12th in pace at 99.7 possessions per game.

So far, the Thunder defense is giving up 113.0 points per contest, which has them sitting 13th in the NBA. One thing to note, is they have given up more points than their season average in four straight matchups. Opponents are hitting 51.3% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 36.1% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road contests, the Timberwolves offense has averaged 112 points per game while allowing an average of 110. Minnesota posted an overall record of 5-5 while going 4-6 ATS.
• In their last five home games, Oklahoma City has averaged 117 points per game while allowing 108. The team’s record in this stretch was 4-1 while going 4-1 vs. the spread.
• Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-1.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Thunder have a straight up record of 8-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 6-4.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Timberwolves are coming off a stretch of games, which they easily should have gone 4-0, facing the Hornets, Wizards, Nets, and Spurs. Yet, they managed to go just 2-2 in these games. Now, they have to face the Thunder on the road. I’m taking OKC at -2.5 in this Western Conference matchup.