Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Lakers Pick for April 7, 2024

Minnesota Timberwolves (53-24 SU, 39-37 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (45-33 SU, 37-41 ATS)

When: Sunday, April 7th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: NBA

Point Spread: Min +3/LAL -3

Total: 222.5

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +123/-148

Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

• Karl-Anthony Towns (Out) Knee
• Jaylen Clark (Out) Achilles

Lakers

• Christian Wood (Out) Knee
• Jarred Vanderbilt (Out) Foot
• Jalen Hood-Schifino (Out) Back

At 10:00 ET, the Minnesota Timberwolves (+123) will travel to Crypto.com Arena to take on the Los Angeles Lakers (-148). The Lakers are currently favored by 3 points and are on a 4-game win streak.

This Western Conference matchup will be televised on NBA TV and has an over/under line of 222.5 points.

Recent Form

In Minnesota’s last game, they were 4.5-point underdogs against the Suns but lost by a score of 97-87. The O/U line for that game was 216.5, and the teams combined for just 184 points.

For the season, Minnesota has an O/U record of 38-39 and their games have averaged 218.6 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 222.5.

Against the spread, Minnesota is 39-37 this season and 21-17 ATS on the road. As the underdog, they are 11-7 ATS on the road and 9-9 straight-up.

Minnesota is currently 2nd in the Western Conference with a record of 53-24. In the West, they are 36-13 and 12-3 against division opponents. On the road, they are 25-14.

On average, Minnesota’s games have had lower O/U lines than today’s line of 222.5. In their previous games, the average O/U line has been 221.1.

Minnesota’s last game finished with a scoring margin of -10 points. This season, they have an average scoring differential of +4.9 points per game on the road.

At home, the Lakers have won four straight games and have an average scoring margin of +5.2 points per game. Today, they are favored by 3 points and have a record of 31-13 as the favorite this season.

Against the spread at home, the Lakers are 20-20 this season, and they have covered the spread in their last two home games. Overall, their ATS record is 37-41.

In their last game, the Lakers defeated the Cavaliers by a score of 116-97. The Lakers were favored by 5 points in that game, and the O/U line was 229.5. The teams combined for just 213 points.

The Lakers are currently in 8th place in the Western Conference with a record of 45-33. In the Pacific Division, they are in 3rd place. Against Western Conference teams, the Lakers are 25-23 compared to 20-10 in non-conference games.

This season, the Lakers have a record of 44-34-0 on the over/under, and 73 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 222.5. On average, Lakers games have scored 235.1 points per game.

The Historicals

The Lakers have had the better record vs the spread over the last 5 games, going 4-1. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 4 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 222 points per game.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Timberwolves are 18th in the NBA at 112.8 points per game. On the road, they are averaging 113.8 points per game compared to 111.7 at home.

Minnesota’s offense is one of the most efficient three-point shooting teams in the league, leading the NBA with a 38% three-point shooting percentage. However, they are just 15th in three-point makes per game.

Overall, the Timberwolves are 10th in field goal percentage at 48%. In terms of pace, they are 20th in the NBA at 97 possessions per game.

At present, the Timberwolves’ defense is ranked 1st, allowing 105.8 points per game. In terms of two point field goal attempts, the Timberwolves defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 50.5% while allowing 35.2% from downtown.

When playing at home, the Lakers are averaging 119 points per game, which is 7th in the NBA. Overall, they are 7th in scoring at 117.9 points per game. Surprisingly, they have been below the NBA scoring average in 43.6% of their games this season.

Los Angeles has been one of the most efficient teams inside the arc, making 56% of their two-point attempts. In terms of field goal percentage, they are 2nd in the league at 49%. However, they are just 29th in three-point attempts and 24th in made threes.

So far, the Lakers have been one of the top teams at getting to the free-throw line, averaging 24 attempts per game. In terms of assists, they are 6th in the NBA at 28.5 per game.

So far, the Lakers’ defense is ranked 23rd in the league at 117.2 points per contest. On two point field goal attempts, the Lakers’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 54.2% and allowing 37.2% from beyond the arc.

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Minnesota has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 109 points per game.
• When looking at their past ten home matchups, Los Angeles has an ATS record of 5-5 while averaging 116 per game. The team went 6-4 overall in these games.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 7-3 while going 5-5 straight up.
• In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Lakers have a straight up record of 8-2 and an ATS mark of 6-4.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Lakers kept things rolling last night, as they easily took down the Cavs at home. Now, they have another big test, as the Timberwolves head to town and will be looking to bounce back from their most recent loss to the Suns. Minnesota comes into this one as 3-point underdogs, and they won’t have Karl-Anthony Towns. Although they are the better-rested team in this one, I still like the Lakers to come out on top and cover the spread.