Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Game & Point Spread Pick

Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26 SU, 47-44 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (57-25 SU, 43-48 ATS)

When: Sunday, May 19th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Min +4.5/Den -4.5

Total: 196.5

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +163/-199

Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

• Mike Conley (Questionable) Calf

Nuggets

• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Calf
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee

Tip-off for game seven of this first-round Western Conference series between the Timberwolves and Nuggets is set for 8:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in Denver. The Nuggets are favored by 4.5 points and are -199 on the money line. The Timberwolves are +163, and the over/under line is 196.5. TNT is carrying the game on TV, and the series is tied 3-3. The winner of this game moves on to the second round.

The Timberwolves dominated the Nuggets in the most recent game of this series, winning by a score of 115-70. Minnesota jumped out to a 31-14 lead in the first quarter and never looked back, as they outscored the Nuggets by 20 in the 4th quarter. Going into the game, the Timberwolves were two-point favorites and easily covered the spread.

Minnesota’s defense was the story of the game, as they held the Nuggets to just 30.2% shooting from the field and seven made threes. Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets with 22 points and nine rebounds, and Anthony Edwards was the game’s top scorer with 27 points. Edwards knocked down four threes and shot 44.4% from beyond the arc.

Recent Form

Minnesota’s overall record this season is 56-26, which is good for 3rd in the Western Conference. Against other Western Conference teams, they have gone 37-15 compared to 19-11 against the East.

As the road team, the Timberwolves are 30-16 this season and have an ATS record of 26-19 on the road. At home, they are 21-25 ATS and have a record of 33-13.

Minnesota has been the underdog in 24 of their 82 games this season and have a straight-up record of 13-11 in those games. Their ATS record as the underdog is 15-9, with an average scoring margin of +1.1 points per game.

In their most recent game, the Timberwolves defeated the Nuggets by a score of 115-70. Minnesota was favored by 2 points in that game and easily covered the spread. The O/U line for the game was 205.5.

This season, Minnesota has an O/U record of 48-44, and their games have averaged 218.5 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 196.5 is the lowest of any of their games this season.

In their games this season, the Nuggets have averaged a combined scoring total of 222.5 points per game, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 196.5. In their games, the average O/U line has been 224.2.

As the favorite this season, the Nuggets have gone 57-22 straight-up and 35-42 ATS. When favored, they have an average scoring margin of +5.8 points per game.

Denver’s O/U record for the season is 38-53-2. Today’s line is lower than all of their previous games, so they have a record of 0-0-0 on the under.

In their last game against the Timberwolves, the Nuggets lost by a score of 115-70. They were 2-point underdogs in that game and had an ATS loss. The O/U line for that game was 205.5.

The Nuggets finished the regular season with a record of 57-25, which is good for 2nd place in the Western Conference. In games against other Western Conference teams, they went 33-19 and 24-6 against the East.

For the season, the Nuggets are 43-48 ATS and 23-23 ATS at home. At home, they have an average scoring margin of +8.5 points per game.

The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Nuggets have gone 3-2, but the Timberwolves actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Minnesota has averaged 103 points per contest while allowing 98. In these contests, they averaged a combined 201 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 18th-ranked scoring offense at 113 points per game. They have been slightly better on the road, averaging 113.7 points per contest compared to 111.5 at home. Despite being 25th in pace, the Timberwolves are 8th in field goal percentage, at 48%.

Anthony Edwards is averaging 27 points per game over his last five games on a field goal percentage of 53.9%. In these games, he also averaged six assists. For the season, he is averaging 25.9 points. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 21.8 points and 8.3 rebounds for the season. Over his last five games, he hit 43.5% of his threes and averaged 2 made threes per game.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA this season, allowing just 105.9 points per game. They have been especially good on the road, giving up just 108.7 points per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the league.

One reason for Minnesota’s defensive success is their ability to protect the paint. They are 1st in the NBA in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 50.8%.

Overall, opponents have had a tough time finding their rhythm against the Timberwolves. In fact, in 81.7% of their games, opponents have scored less than their season average.

Denver is averaging 116.4 points per game at home this season, which is the 11th best mark in the league. Overall, they are 17th in scoring at 114.9 points per contest. The Nuggets are one of the most efficient shooting teams in the league this year, as their field goal percentage of 49% is the 5th best mark in the NBA.

Nikola Jokic is averaging 27.4 points per game over his last five games on 55.1% shooting. In these games, he pulled down 10.6 rebounds and 7.8 assists. For the season, Jokic is averaging 26.4 points and 12.4 rebounds. Aaron Gordon has hit 64.8% of his shots over his last five games and 18 points per contest.

The Denver Nuggets have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season, ranking 6th in points allowed per game at 109.0. They have been especially tough at home, giving up just 108.0 points per game, which is 5th in the league.

Opposing teams have had a tough time shooting the three against the Nuggets, as they are 2nd in three-point percentage allowed at 35.2%. Denver has also done a good job defending inside the arc, ranking 5th in two-point shooting percentage allowed.

Over their last five games, the Nuggets have given up just 103 points per game, which is 4th in the NBA during that stretch. During that stretch, they have been solid defending the three, ranking 12th in three-point percentage allowed.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 111 points per game while allowing 103. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-1.
• When looking at their past three matchups at home, Denver has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 100 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Timberwolves have a straight up record of 6-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 7-3.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Denver has an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 6-4 straight up.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Timberwolves dominated game six to keep their season alive, but unfortunately for them, I see Denver picking up the win and advancing to the Western Conference Finals. Right now, the spread is sitting at -4.5 in favor of Denver, and I am taking them to cover this line.