Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Game 7 Best Bet

Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26 SU, 44-41 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (57-25 SU, 40-45 ATS)

When: Saturday, May 4th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver

TV: TNT

Point Spread: Min +4.5/Den -4.5

Total: 208.5

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves +153/-186

Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

None

Nuggets

• Jamal Murray (Questionable) Calf
• Vlatko Cancar (Out) Knee

This Western Conference first-round series between the Timberwolves and Nuggets is all tied up at 3-3, and game seven is being played in Denver at Ball Arena. Tip-off is at 7:00 PM ET and TNT is carrying the game on TV. The Nuggets are the slight favorite, with the point spread at -4.5, and the over/under line is at 208.5 points. Denver is -186 on the money line, while a Minnesota win is at +153.

Minnesota closed out their series vs. the Suns with a 122-116 win on the road. The Timberwolves won the series 4-0, and their offense was able to hit the over on the pregame over/under line of 213 points.

Anthony Edwards had a huge game for the Timberwolves, finishing with 40 points and hitting seven threes. He shot 56.5% from the field and 53.8% from beyond the arc. Karl-Anthony Towns added 28 points, 10 rebounds, and hit four threes.

Denver picked up a 108-106 win over the Lakers, closing out their series in five games. With the win, the Nuggets took the series 4-1. Denver was able to close out the series on their home floor.

In this game, the over/under line was 216.5 points, and the teams combined for 214 points. This game was a bit of an outlier in terms of scoring, as it fell below the over/under line. Denver was led by Jamal Murray, who finished with 32 points and seven assists. Michael Porter Jr. added 26 points and hit five threes.

Recent Form

In their last game against the Suns, the Timberwolves won 122-116. They were 1-point underdogs going into the game, and the combined scoring total of 238 points easily went over the O/U line of 213.

This season, Minnesota has an O/U record of 45-41, and the over has hit in their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 219.6 points, compared to today’s line of 208.5.

Against the spread, the Timberwolves have covered in four straight games and have an overall ATS record of 44-41. On the road, they are 24-18 ATS compared to 20-23 at home.

As underdogs, the Timberwolves have gone 11-10 straight-up and 13-8 ATS. Today, they are getting 4.5 points on the spread. In their last four games, they have won as the underdog.

Minnesota is currently 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 37-15 and 12-4 against division opponents.

In the Western Conference, the Timberwolves have an average scoring differential of +5.0 points per game on the road. Overall, their road record is 28-15.

Today, the Nuggets are looking for their 8th straight home win and are favored by 4.5 points. In their last three games, they have been the favorite and have gone 2-1 straight-up and 1-2 against the spread.

Denver’s ATS record at home is 22-21, and they are 40-45 overall. The team’s straight-up record at home is 36-8. In the Western Conference, the Nuggets are 2nd with a record of 57-25.

This season, the Nuggets have gone 6-5 ATS as the favorite and have an average scoring margin of +6.2 points per game. As the favorite, they have a record of 56-20 and have been favored in 76 of their 82 games.

In their last game, the Nuggets defeated the Lakers by a score of 108-106. The O/U line for that game was 216.5, and Denver was favored by 6.5 points. The win improved their ATS record to 40-45 for the season.

On average, the Nuggets’ games have finished with 223.9 points this season. Today’s O/U line is set at 208.5, and Denver has a season record of 35-50-2 on the over/under.

The Historicals

The Timberwolves have had the better record vs the spread over the last 5 games, going 4-1. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 3 points per game. A combined average of 215 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 18th ranked scoring offense, at 113 points per game. They have been slightly better on the road, averaging 114.4 points per game compared to 112 at home. The Timberwolves are 8th in field goal percentage, hitting 48% of their shots this season. They are also the league’s 3rd best three-point shooting team, connecting on 38% of their looks from downtown.

Anthony Edwards has been carrying the Timberwolves offense of late, averaging 27.4 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he hit 50.6% of his shots from the field. Over this stretch, he also averaged 5.8 assists. Rudy Gobert is averaging 12.9 rebounds per game for the Jazz and 16.2 points over his last five games on 65% shooting.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA this season, giving up just 106.4 points per game. They have been especially tough at home, where they have allowed just 103.3 points per contest.

One of the reasons for their success has been their ability to limit opponents’ field goal percentage, as they have held opposing teams to just 45.1% shooting from the floor. They have also done a good job of protecting the rim, ranking 7th in the league in blocked shots per game.

In terms of three-point defense, Minnesota has been solid, allowing opponents to shoot just 35.6% from beyond the arc. However, in their last five games, they have struggled in this area, giving up a three-point shooting percentage of 40.3%.

Denver comes into the game as the 10th best home scoring team, at 117.8 points per game. Overall, they are 13th in the league, averaging 114.9 points per game. The Nuggets are one of the top shooting teams in terms of field goal percentage, as they have hit 49% of their shots this year, which is the 4th best mark in the league.

Nikola Jokic has been carrying the Nuggets offense of late, averaging 28.2 points and 16.2 rebounds over his last five games. He also chipped in 9.8 assists per game in that stretch. Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 22.8 points per game in his last five games while hitting 48.8% of his threes. Jamal Murray is questionable with a calf injury, and he averaged 23.6 points and 7.2 assists in his last five games.

As the Nuggets prepare to face the Timberwolves, they will do so with the 6th ranked defense in the league. Denver is allowing just 109.4 points per game this season. They have been equally stingy at home, giving up just 108.3 points per contest.

Opponents have had a tough time from beyond the arc against the Nuggets, making just 11.1 three-pointers per game, which is the 2nd fewest in the NBA. In fact, in 74.4% of games this season, Denver’s opponent has made fewer threes than their season average.

Over their last five games, the Nuggets have been even better from deep, allowing just 29.8% shooting from three-point range. In that stretch, they have also been able to limit their opponents to just 14.4 made free throws per game.

Betting Trends

• The Timberwolves are 2-1 ATS in their three last road games and 2-1 straight-up.
• When looking at their past five home matchups, Denver has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 115 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
• The Timberwolves have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
• Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Nuggets have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 0-3.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Both team’s come into this one with plenty of rest, as the Wolves swept the Suns and the Nuggets needed just five games to take care of the Lakers. Look for Minnesota’s hot run to begin the post-season to hit its first speed bump, I like the Nuggets to pick up a win and cover on Saturday nightr at -4.5 points.