Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks Spread Pick | Jan 4, 2024

Minnesota Timberwolves (25-9 SU, 16-17 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (21-15 SU, 20-16 ATS)

When: Sunday, January 7th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas

TV: BSSW

Point Spread: Min -3/Dal +3

Total: 230.5

Money Line: Minnesota Timberwolves -145/+119

Notable Injuries

Timberwolves

• Jaylen Clark (Out) Achilles

Mavericks

• Dante Exum (Out) Heel
• Markieff Morris (Questionable) Illness
• Richaun Holmes (Questionable) Personal
• Maxi Kleber (Out) Toe
• Luka Doncic (Questionable) Ankle
• Grant Williams (Questionable) Ankle
• Dereck Lively II (Doubtful) Ankle

Recent Form

As the Timberwolves get ready to take on the Mavericks, they are sitting in 1st place in the Western Conference. Overall, Minnesota is 25-9 this season.

So far, the Timberwolves have been the favorite in 26 of their 34 games and have gone 21-5 straight up in those games. When playing on the road, Minnesota has a scoring margin of +2.1 compared to +9.6 at home. Their road record for the season is 11th in the West at 11-7.

Against the spread, the Timberwolves are 8-9 on the road and 16-17 overall. Their average ATS score on the road is currently below .500 at 8-9.

In their last game, Minnesota took down the Rockets by a score of 122-95 and easily covered the spread as 4-point favorites. The over/under line in that game was 216.5 points, and the teams combined to score 217. This improved Minnesota’s over/under record to 19-15 for the season.

Heading into today’s matchup vs. the Timberwolves, the Mavericks are listed as 3-point underdogs at home. Before today’s game, they are 6th in the West and lead the Southwest Division at 21-15.

Against the spread, Dallas is 20-16 this season. The team’s ATS record of 8-9 at home is being boosted by two straight covers. In each of their last two games, the Mavericks have also been the favorites. For the season, they have been the favorites in 23 games and have gone 17-6.

The over/under record in Dallas’ games is 22-14, and the over has hit in each of their last two games. Today’s line of 230.5 is slightly below their average over/under line of 234.6. For the season, 24 of their games have had lower over/under lines than 230.5.

So far, the Mavericks have an average scoring differential of +6.4 points per game at home. This season, they have an ATS record of 8-9 at home but have covered the spread in two straight games at home.

The Historicals

The Timberwolves have had the better record vs the spread over the last 5 games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 7 points per game. Minnesota and Dallas averaged a combined 223 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

In their most recent game, the Timberwolves’ offense had a strong showing, scoring 122 points vs. the Rockets. Overall, they shot 52.3% from the field and were 16/20 from the free-throw line. Leading the way in scoring vs. the Rockets was Anthony Edwards with 24 points, while Karl-Anthony Towns added 22 points.

This season, the Timberwolves’ defense is the 1st ranked defense in the NBA at 1st PPG. So far, they have held opposing offenses below the NBA scoring average in 73.5% of their games. On two point field goal attempts, the Timberwolves’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 50.8% and allowing 34.7% from beyond the arc.

In their last game, the Mavericks put up 139 points vs. the Trail Blazers, shooting 58.3% from the field and 10/15 from the free-throw line. On the season, the Mavericks are 17th in the NBA with a field goal percentage of 47%. In terms of three-pointers, they are 2nd in makes and 17th in percentage.

The Mavericks’ defense is presently ranked 21st in the league, allowing an average of 117.0 points per contest. Most recently, the Mavericks’ defense put together a solid performance, giving up just 103 points to the Trail Blazers.

Betting Trends

• Across their ten previous road games, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 6-4. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 114 points per game.
• Dallas has a 1-2 record in their last three home games. In this stretch, they averaged 110 points per game while allowing 122. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
• As the betting underdog, the Mavericks have an ATS mark of just 4-6 in their last ten games. Dallas posted a straight-up mark of 3-7 in these matchups.
• In their last five contests as the favorite, Minnesota has a poor record vs the spread going 1-4. But, they still put together a straight-up mark of 3-2.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Minnesota bounced back from a two-game losing streak by taking down Houston in their last game. Today, they are favored -3 against a Mavs squad that played two straight games against the Blazers and dominated them both times. However, I see the Wolves picking up the win and covering vs. a Dallas team with a lengthy injury report, including Luka Doncic who is questionable.