Minnesota at Orlando Prediction: Asterisk Play Alert!

Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic Prediction and Analysis

I’ve got one.
They’ve been few and far apart this NBA season but I’ve got one today.
An Asterisk Play.
There are 30 teams in the NBA and each of them has played approximately 37 games thus far this year, and only 11 games have qualified as an Asterisk Play.

The overall record is 3-8, a 72% Fade.
Broken down into a Hm/Rd subset, the record is Hm 1-4, Rd 2-4.
And I have a Hm team that qualifies today, the 1-4 subset, an 80% Fade.

WF2 says Orlando should be favored in this game. WF1 says Minnesota should be favored AND by enough points for the game to qualify as an Asterisk Play.

I last used this play on January 5th with New Orleans -4′; they won by 12. I wasn’t able to get the game ‘capped, written up, edited/corrected, and submitted in time to get it in a homepage column, so I posted it in the forum Sunday morning.
MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE PredictEm FORUM EVERYDAY FOR ADDITIONAL FREE PICKS!!! (I’m 6-2 with my NBA forum picks.)

The line on this game opened at Minnesota -3′, and they’re already up to -5′. Overall, the Timberwolves are just 19-17 SU and 14-21-1 ATS.
They’re sitting in eighth place in the Western Conference, only two games above 500.
That 14-21 ATS record is troublesome if you’re using a team as a Rd Fav, but I get a little salvation in the fact that they’re 7-6 ATS when they’re favored on the road.

Orlando is 22-16 SU and are sitting in fourth place in the Eastern Conference.

So why is the better team, at home, getting points?
Injuries.
The Timberwolves are without Rob Dillingham. The Magic are without Gary Harris, Jalen Suggs, and Franz Wagner. Banchero is listed as questionable, game time decision.

This is the first meeting between these two this year so we’ve got no data to look at there. They split last year 1-1.

Minnesota has won two in a row and are 5-5 in their last 10.
Orlando are the same, 5-5 in their last 10.

Today’s play:

Minnesota – 5′Recap: 0-1
Record: 4-3
Review:
Had Atlanta/LAL over 231.
Needed the quarters to average 57.7
First three quarters were 59, 63, 60.
Had 182 going into Q4, only needed 49 more points.
After Q’s of 59, 63, and 60, getting 49 would be easy right?
WRONG!
Atlanta only put up 16 and the game landed on 221.
Not only did Atlanta screw me with a 16-point Q4 but they also went 6-34, 18% from three point range.
6-34!!!
Bastards.

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