Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Orleans Pelicans Pick ATS for March 28th

Milwaukee Bucks (46-26 SU, 32-40 ATS) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (44-28 SU, 39-32 ATS)

When: Thursday, March 28th, 8:00 PM (ET)

Where: Smoothie King Center, LA, New Orleans

TV: NBA

Point Spread: Mil -2/NO +2

Total: 223.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -131/+110

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Hamstring
• Khris Middleton (Probable) Ankle
• Patrick Beverley (Out) Wrist
• MarJon Beauchamp (Probable) Back

Pelicans

• Brandon Ingram (Out) Knee
• Jose Alvarado (Questionable) Hip

In a non-conference matchup, the Pelicans will host the Bucks at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. The game will tip-off at 8:00 ET and can be seen on NBA TV.

Milwaukee (-131) is currently favored by 2 over New Orleans (+110). The over/under line for the game is 223.5.

Recent Form

The Bucks are 43-17 as the favorite this season and are favored by 2 points today. In their games as the favorite, they have gone 27-33 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +6.7 points per game.

Milwaukee’s O/U record for the season is 36-36, and their games have averaged a combined 237.6 points. Today’s line of 223.5 is lower than their season average of 235.9.

In their last game, the Bucks lost to the Lakers by a score of 128-124. The O/U line for that game was 234 points, and Milwaukee was favored by 9.5 points going into the game.

Overall, the Bucks are 46-26 this season, which is good for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. Against the East, they are 31-14 and 10-7 against their division.

Milwaukee’s ATS record for the season is 32-40, including a road ATS record of 15-20. In their last two games as the underdog, they have failed to cover the spread.

In terms of their ATS record, the Pelicans have gone 39-32 for the season after failing to cover the spread in their last two games. At home, they are 19-15 ATS and 20-17 ATS on the road.

As the underdog, New Orleans has a straight-up record of 14-13 and are 16-11 vs. the spread. Today, they are 2-point underdogs and have gone 27-27 as the underdog this season.

The Pelicans’ O/U record for the season is 31-41, and 48 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 223.5. This year, their games have averaged 226.2 points.

New Orleans is coming off a 119-112 loss to the Thunder, where they were 1-point underdogs. The O/U line for that game was 223 points, and the Pelicans’ ATS record for the season is 39-32.

Currently, the Pelicans are 5th in the Western Conference with a record of 44-28. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 26-19 and 18-9 in non-conference games. In the Southwest Division, they are in 1st place.

The Historicals

The ATS record across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Bucks. In these matchups, Milwaukee has averaged 130 points per game while allowing 115. Over the course of these games, they averaged 245 points per game, leading a 5-0 over-under record.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Bucks are one of the top teams in the league, averaging 120.6 points per game (3rd). On the road, they are averaging 118.2 points per game (4th).

So far this season, the Bucks have outscored the NBA scoring average in 66.7% of their games. They are also one of the top teams in terms of pace, averaging 100.5 possessions per game (5th).

In terms of shooting, the Bucks are 7th in field goal percentage (49%), 2nd in two-point shooting percentage (57%), and 7th in three-point shooting percentage (37%).

The Bucks’ defense is presently ranked 22nd in the league, allowing an average of 117.0 points per contest. Milwaukee struggled on the boards in their last game vs. the Lakers, giving up 15. For the game, Los Angeles scored 128 points in the game.

At home this season, the Pelicans are averaging 116.5 points per game, which is 14th in the NBA. Overall, they are 13th in scoring at 115.7 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage, the Pelicans are 8th in the league at 48%. They are also 8th in three-point shooting at 38%.

So far this season, the Pelicans have outscored the NBA scoring average in 51.4% of their games. In terms of pace, they are 18th in the league at 97.5 possessions per game. When it comes to assists, the Pelicans are 11th with an average of 27.1 per game.

When looking at their free-throw shooting, the Pelicans are 13th in both free throws made and attempted. In terms of offensive rebounds, they are 16th in the NBA. At home, the Pelicans are averaging 116.5 points per game, which is 14th in the NBA.

This season, the Pelican’s defense has been impressive, holding the 8th position in the league while permitting an average of 110.5 points per contest. Inside the arc, the Pelicans defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 55.0% and 34.5% from three-point territory.

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Milwaukee has a 2-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-2, while averaging 112 points per game.
• Across their ten previous home games, New Orleans has an ATS mark of 5-4-1. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 8-2, and they averaged 111 points per game.
• As the betting underdog, the Pelicans have an ATS mark of just 5-5 in their last ten games. New Orleans posted a straight-up mark of 4-6 in these matchups.
• As the betting favorite, the Bucks have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 4-1.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks come into this one after completely blowing their last game against the Lakers. Milwaukee led the game throughout and held a big lead in the fourth quarter before falling in double overtime. But without Brandon Ingram, I see the Bucks playing better defense, getting the win, and covering the spread. I like Milwaukee at -2.