Milwaukee Bucks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Pick ATS

Milwaukee Bucks (35-21 SU, 21-35 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (39-16 SU, 29-25 ATS)

When: Friday, February 23rd, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Mil +4.5/Min -4.5

Total: 225.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +156/-190

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
• Khris Middleton (Questionable) Ankle

Timberwolves

• Wendell Moore Jr. (Questionable) Knee
• Jaylen Clark (Out) Achilles

At 10:00 ET, the Timberwolves (-190) will host the Bucks (+156) in a non-conference matchup. Minnesota comes in as 4.5-point favorites, while the over/under line is currently set at 225.5.

ESPN will have coverage of this game from the Target Center in Minneapolis. The Timberwolves are currently on a four-game winning streak, while the Bucks have lost two in a row. Milwaukee is 3rd in the Eastern Conference with a record of 35-21, while Minnesota is 1st in the West at 39-16.

Recent Form

Today, the Bucks are looking to end their two-game losing streak after losing to the Grizzlies by a score of 113-110. In that game, the over/under line was 222.5 points, and Milwaukee was favored by 14 points.

For the season, the Bucks have an O/U record of 30-26, and their games have averaged a combined 240.9 points, which is higher than today’s line of 225.5. In their last game, the O/U line was 222.5, and the teams combined for 223 points.

Against the spread, the Bucks are 21-35 for the season and 9-17 ATS on the road. As the underdog, they are 0-6 straight-up and 1-5 vs. the spread on the road. Their ATS losing streak as the underdog is at five games.

In the Eastern Conference, the Bucks are currently in 3rd place with a record of 35-21. In their division, they are 2nd with a record of 9-7. On the road, the Bucks are 12-14 compared to 23-7 at home.

The Timberwolves have a record of 39-16, which is currently the best in the Western Conference. In their last game, they defeated the Trail Blazers by a score of 128-91. Minnesota was favored by 9.5 points in that game and easily covered the spread.

This season, the Timberwolves have an ATS record of 29-25, and they have covered the spread in four straight games. At home, they are 13-11 ATS, while going 16-14 ATS on the road.

Minnesota’s O/U record for the season is 28-27, and the over has hit in their last two games. Today’s O/U line is set at 225.5, and the average combined scoring in their games is 220.7.

On average, the Timberwolves have been favored by 9.2 points per game this season. They have a record of 33-11 as the favorite and are 22-21 ATS as the favorite. In the Western Conference, they are 27-8 against other teams and 12-8 in non-conference games.

The Historicals

Across the previous 5 meetings between the teams, the Timberwolves have an average scoring margin of +5 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 3-2. In these contests, they averaged a combined 233 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Bucks are one of the most potent offenses in the league, averaging 122 points per game, which is 2nd in the NBA. On the road, they are averaging 120.5 points per game.

In terms of pace, Milwaukee is 4th in the league at 101.4 possessions per game. They are also one of the top teams in terms of field goal percentage, shooting 49% from the field, which is 5th in the league.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Bucks are 5th in made threes per game at 14.2. They are also 8th in three-point shooting percentage at 37%. In terms of free throws, Milwaukee is 4th in made free throws per game and 2nd in free throw attempts.

Facing Minnesota, the Bucks aim for a better defensive performance, given their current average of 118.8 points allowed per game (23rd). Inside the arc, the Bucks defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 54.5% and 35.1% from three-point territory.

At home, the Timberwolves are averaging 112.7 points per game, which is 24th in the NBA. Overall, they are 20th in scoring at 114 points per game. They have outscored the NBA scoring average in 47.3% of their games this season.

Minnesota is 7th in the league in field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. They are also 3rd in three-point shooting at 39%. However, they are just 28th in offensive rebounds and 26th in pace.

When it comes to free throws, the Timberwolves are 8th in attempts and 10th in makes. In terms of assists, they are 17th in the NBA.

Coming into the game, the Timberwolves defense has held opposing teams to fewer points than the league average in 23.6% of their games. Currently, they are 1st in the NBA at 106.7 points per game allowed. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Timberwolves are forcing 14 per game, which is 25th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 7th in blocked shots at 5.9 per game.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Bucks have a straight up record of 3-7 while going 1-9 vs. the spread. The team averaged 114 points per game in this stretch.
• Across their last three home contests, Minnesota has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 3-0. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0, while averaging 123 points per game.
• The last three games that Milwaukee was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 0-3 while going 0-3 straight up.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Timberwolves have a strong straight up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 3-0 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

I don’t think the All-Star break is suddenly going to fix all the Bucks’ problems. And the last time these two teams faced off, the Wolves went into Milwaukee and easily took care of business. I’m taking the Timberwolves to win and cover at -4.5 points.