Milwaukee Bucks vs. LA Lakers Moneyline Pick

Milwaukee Bucks (41-22 SU, 27-36 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (34-30 SU, 28-36 ATS)

When: Friday, March 8th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Mil -1/LAL +1

Total: 232.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -116/-105

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Achilles
• Khris Middleton (Out) Ankle

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Probable) Achilles
• LeBron James (Questionable) Ankle
• Christian Wood (Out) Knee
• Jarred Vanderbilt (Out) Foot
• Gabe Vincent (Out) Knee
• Cam Reddish (Probable) Ankle
• Colin Castleton (Out) Wrist

The Bucks (-116) are a 1-point favorite versus the Lakers (-105) in a non-conference matchup. The over/under line is sitting at 232.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 ET at Crypto.com Arena. ESPN will televise the game.

Milwaukee (41-22) is 2nd in the Eastern Conference and 1st in the Central Division. Los Angeles (34-30) is 10th in the Western Conference and 5th in the Pacific Division.

Recent Form

The Bucks are favored by 1 point today against the Lakers, and they have a 39-15 record as the favorite this season. In their last 4 games as the favorite, they have also covered the spread.

In terms of their O/U record, the Bucks are 30-33 this season, and the under has hit in their last 7 games. Today’s O/U line of 232.5 is lower than their season average of 237.1.

Milwaukee’s last game was a 125-90 loss to the Warriors, and they were 2.5-point underdogs in that game. The teams combined for just 215 points, which was well below the O/U line of 230.

Overall, the Bucks are 41-22 this season, which is the 2nd best record in the Eastern Conference. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 29-13 and 10-7 in their division.

On the road, the Bucks are 16-15 straight up and 13-18 against the spread. Their ATS record for the season is 27-36, and they have covered the spread in 4 straight games as the favorite.

In terms of their ATS record, the Lakers are 28-36 this season, going 15-18 against the spread at home and 13-18 on the road. As the underdog, they are 15-16 ATS compared to 13-20 as the favorite. The Lakers have failed to cover the spread in three straight games as the favorite.

On average, Lakers games have finished with 234.8 points per game, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 232.5. This season, the Lakers have a 35-29-0 record on the over/under.

Los Angeles is currently 10th in the Western Conference with a record of 34-30. In the Pacific Division, they are in 5th place. Against other Western Conference teams, the Lakers are 23-21 and 11-9 in non-conference play.

The Lakers are coming off a 130-120 loss to the Kings, where they were favored by 2.5 points. The teams combined for 250 points, surpassing the O/U line of 239.5.

The Historicals

In terms of betting, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 3-2 in the previous 5 matchups vs Los Angeles. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +9 points per game in favor of the Bucks. A combined average of 229 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

The Bucks are one of the top-scoring teams in the NBA, averaging 120.9 points per game (3rd). They have been particularly effective on the road, where they are averaging 118.6 points per game (3rd).

So far this season, the Bucks have outscored the NBA’s average scoring output in 65.1% of their games. However, they have scored less than their own scoring average in each of their last four games.

When it comes to pace, the Bucks are 6th in the league at 100.7 possessions per game. In terms of field goal percentage, they are 7th at 49%. They are also one of the top teams in the NBA in terms of true shooting percentage (4th).

On defense, the Bucks are ranked 19th in the NBA this season. So far, they have given up more points than the NBA scoring average in 58.7% of their games. On two-point field goal attempts, the Bucks’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 53.9% and allowing 35.3% from beyond the arc.

At home, the Lakers are averaging 118.0 points per game, which is 9th in the NBA. Overall, they are 11th in scoring at 117.2 points per game. In terms of pace, the Lakers are 4th in the NBA.

When it comes to shooting, the Lakers are 3rd in field goal percentage at 49%. However, they are just 27th in three-point shooting percentage. In terms of three-point attempts, the Lakers are last in the NBA.

So far this season, the Lakers have outscored the NBA scoring average in 48.4% of their games. In terms of assists, they are 7th in the NBA.

On defense, the Lakers come into the game ranked 20th in the league in points allowed at 117.6 per game. Over their last three games, the team is allowing 119.3 points per contest (22nd). When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Lakers squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 54.2% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 37.7% from downtown.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Milwaukee has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 104 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• Although Los Angeles has a straight up record of 6-4 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 5-5. The team averaged 121 points per game in these games.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Los Angeles has an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 2-3 straight up.
• Milwaukee has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Milwaukee’s West Coast road trip started with them getting trounced by the Warriors, and after stringing together some good defensive efforts, the Warriors got whatever they wanted vs. the Bucks on Tuesday night. While the Lakers aren’t quite as good of an offensive unit as the Warriors, it is tough to know what Bucks team is going to show up tonight. Although Giannis is listed as probable, I think he’s still limited by his achilles injury. My pick is to take LA to win this one straight up.

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