Milwaukee Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors: NBA Betting Preview and Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks (38-29 SU, 31-34 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (39-29 SU, 35-32 ATS)

When: Tuesday, March 18th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, CA, San Francisco

TV: NBCS

Point Spread: Mil -3.5/GS +3.5

Total: 230

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -161/+133

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
• Damian Lillard (Probable) Groin
• Bobby Portis (Out) Suspension
• Gary Trent Jr. (Probable) Patella
• Jericho Sims (Out) Thumb

Warriors

• Brandin Podziemski (Questionable) Back

At 10:00 ET, the 4th-seeded Bucks (-161) will take on the 6th-seeded Warriors (+133) in a non-conference matchup at Chase Center in San Francisco. Milwaukee is favored by 3.5 points, and the over/under line is set at 230.

This game will be broadcast on NBCS.

Recent Form

Milwaukee’s record dropped to 38-29 after a 121-105 home loss to the Thunder on Sunday. The Bucks entered the game as +5.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 226, falling short of the O/U line of 233.

Milwaukee went on a 10-0 run early, turning a 24-19 deficit into a 29-24 lead. However, they struggled in the 2nd quarter, scoring only 15 points while allowing 29. The Thunder extended their lead to 92-74 by the end of the 3rd quarter, and despite outscoring the Thunder 31-29 in the 4th, the Bucks couldn’t close the gap.

The Warriors fell to 39-29 on the season after a 114-105 home loss to the Nuggets on Monday. Golden State, who entered the game as 11.5-point favorites, failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 219, falling short of the 232.5 O/U line.

Denver went on an 11-0 run early, turning a 36-29 deficit into a 40-36 lead. The Nuggets led 89-77 going into the 4th quarter, and while the Warriors outscored them 28-25 in the final period, it wasn’t enough to complete the comeback.

The Historicals

Across the previous five meetings between the teams, the Warriors have an average scoring margin of +6 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 4-1. The over-under record in these same games is 4-1, with the teams combining for an average of 234 points per game.

Analysis

In their 121-105 loss to the Thunder, the Bucks shot just 39.8% from the field. They connected on 13 threes, shooting 38.2% from beyond the arc.

Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 21 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists, while Damian Lillard added 19 points. Gary Trent Jr. contributed 12 points, hitting three threes.

The Bucks gave up 121 points to the Thunder on Sunday, with their toughest stretch coming in the 3rd quarter, where they allowed 39 points. Milwaukee allowed 29 points in both the 2nd and 4th quarters but held Oklahoma City to 24 points in the 1st.

Defensively, the Bucks limited the Thunder to 10 three-pointers on 34% shooting. They also sent Oklahoma City to the line 25 times, where the Thunder made 19 free throws. Milwaukee finished with seven steals and eight blocks.

In their 114-105 loss to the Nuggets, the Warriors struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just eight threes at a 24.2% clip. Despite their long-range woes, they shot 48.8% from the field overall.

Jimmy Butler led the way with 23 points and eight rebounds, while Stephen Curry added 20 points, though he connected on only 28.6% of his shots. Gary Payton contributed 18 points, including 11 in the 2nd quarter.

Defensively, the Warriors gave up 114 points to the Nuggets, including 33 in the 2nd quarter. They tightened up in the 4th, allowing just 25 points. Overall, Denver shot 46% from the field.

Golden State allowed 14 threes on 35% shooting. The Nuggets went 14/18 from the line. The Warriors had 27 defensive rebounds but gave up 19 offensive boards. They also recorded 16 steals and 10 blocks.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 124 points per game while allowing 117. The team also performed well against the spread at 2-0-1.
• Across their last five home contests, Golden State has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1 while averaging 118 points per game.
• The last five games that Golden State was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 2-3 straight up.
• In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Bucks have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Getting the Warriors at +3.5 is an absolute steal tonight in the NBA. Although the Warriors are 6th in the West compared to the Bucks being 4th, I think the Warriors are going to cause problems for Milwaukee tonight. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Golden State win this straight-up, and you could take them on the money line if you’re feeling aggressive.