Milwaukee Bucks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers ATS Prediction 1/17/24

Milwaukee Bucks (28-12 SU, 16-24 ATS) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (23-15 SU, 19-17 ATS)

When: Wednesday, January 17th, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, OH, Cleveland

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Mil -4/Cle +4

Total: 237.5

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -177/+147

Notable Injuries

Bucks

None

Cavaliers

• Caris LeVert (Questionable) Wrist
• Darius Garland (Out) Jaw
• Ty Jerome (Out) Ankle
• Evan Mobley (Out) Knee

At 7:30 ET, the Milwaukee Bucks (-177) will travel to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers (+147) in a Central Division matchup. The Bucks are currently favored by 4 points in this game. ESPN will televise the game, which will be played at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland.

Both teams enter this game on winning streaks, with the Bucks having won three straight and the Cavaliers having won five straight. Milwaukee (28-12) is currently 2nd in the Eastern Conference and 1st in the Central Division. Cleveland (23-15) is 4th in the East and 2nd in the Central.

Recent Form

The Bucks have a season record of 25-15-0 on the over/under, and the over has hit in their last two games. This year, their games have averaged 244.9 points per game compared to today’s line of 237.5.

In their last game against the Kings, the Bucks won by a score of 143-142. The O/U line for that game was 245.5, giving them their second straight over result.

Milwaukee is currently 2nd in the Eastern Conference with a record of 28-12. In non-conference games, they are 7-2 and 21-10 against other Eastern Conference teams.

On the road, the Bucks are 9-8 this season, and they are favored by 4 points vs. the Cavaliers. Their ATS record on the road is 8-9, and they have covered the spread in three straight games.

For the season, the Bucks have been favored in all but one of their games. Their record as the favorite is 28-11, and they are 15-24 vs. the spread as the favorite. As the favorite, they have an average scoring margin of +5.2 PPG.

In their last game against the Bulls, the Cavaliers won by a score of 109-91. The O/U line for that game was 223 points. This improved their record to 23-15 on the season, which is currently 4th in the Eastern Conference.

Cleveland has won five straight games at home and is 14-8 overall at home this season. As the underdog, they are 6-9 this season and are 19-17 against the spread. Today, they are 4-point underdogs.

The Cavaliers have an O/U record of 18-19-1 for the season, and their games have averaged 223.8 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 237.5, and their games have averaged 224.6 points per game.

In the Eastern Conference, the Cavaliers are 15-9 against other teams and 8-6 in non-conference games. Against the spread, they are 19-17 overall and have covered in their last two games.

The Historicals

The Bucks have had the better record vs the spread over the last 5 games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 4 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 2-3, with the teams combining for an average of 218 points per game.

Analysis

When it comes to scoring, the Bucks are one of the top teams in the NBA, averaging 125 points per game, which is 2nd in the league. Interestingly, they have actually been better on the road, averaging 123.5 points compared to 126 at home.

So far this season, the Bucks have outscored the NBA scoring average in 80% of their games. They have also been one of the most efficient teams in the league, ranking 3rd in field goal percentage and 2nd in true shooting percentage.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Bucks are 5th in both makes per game (14.4) and three-point shooting percentage (38%). In terms of pace, they are 4th in the NBA.

Coming into the game, the Bucks will be looking to improve their defense, as they are currently giving up 119.9 points per game (24th). In their previous matchup vs. the Kings, the Bucks’ defense struggled, giving up a field goal percentage of 52% leading to 142 points.

The Cavaliers are 21st in the NBA in scoring at 113.1 points per game. At home, they are averaging 113.9 points per game. In terms of pace, Cleveland is 22nd in the league.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Cavaliers are 14th in the NBA in three-point makes at 13 per game. However, their three-point shooting percentage is just 25th in the league at 35%.

Overall, Cleveland is 15th in field goal percentage at 47%. In terms of free throws, they are 26th in the league in both attempts and makes at 16.2 per game.

So far, the Cavaliers’ defense is ranked 3rd in the league at 110.7 points per contest. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Cavaliers are forcing 13.3 per game, which is 20th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 24th in blocked shots at 4.5 per game.

Betting Trends

• Through their last five road games, Milwaukee has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 3-2 while averaging 125 points per game.
• Across their last three home contests, Cleveland has been good against the spread posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 114 points per game.
• Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Cavaliers have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
• The last ten games that Milwaukee was favored, they have an ATS mark of 3-7 while going 6-4 straight up.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Something will have to give tonight, as the Bucks have won three straight, while Cleveland is the hottest team in the East with a five-game win streak. I’m taking Cleveland to cover as the +4 point home dogs.