Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics: NBA Betting Preview – Nov 22, 2023

Milwaukee Bucks (10-4 SU, 5-9 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (11-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)

When: Wednesday, November 22nd, 7:30 PM (ET)

Where: TD Garden, MA, Boston

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Mil +5.5/Bos -5.5

Total: 236

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks +183/-223

Notable Injuries

Bucks

• Jae Crowder (Out) Groin
• Damian Lillard (Probable) Oblique
• MarJon Beauchamp (Probable) Ankle
• Chris Livingston (Probable) Ankle

Celtics

Recent Form

Today’s matchup sees the Bucks seeking to extend their current five-game winning streak, with an overall record standing at 10-4. Currently, the team is 2nd in the Eastern Conference as well as 1st in the Central Division.

Today, the Celtics are entering the action with an overall record of 11-3 and have achieved a 3-0 record over their last three games. Across 14 games, the Celtics have a 10-2 record when facing Eastern Conference teams, and they have a 1-1 record in non-conference games.

The Historicals

Across the previous 5 meetings between the teams, the Celtics have an average scoring margin of +20 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 5-0. Over the course of these games, they averaged 228 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.

Analysis

Coming off their recent game, the Bucks offense tallied 142 points in a matchup against the Wizards. Their field goal percentage for the game was 58.5%, and they made 11 threes. The team’s top scorer is Giannis Antetokounmpo, who enters today’s matchup with an average of 30.2, while Damian Lillard also carries a PPG average of 24.6 into the game.

Currently, the Bucks’ defense holds the 23rd rank in the NBA, allowing 117.7 points per game.

In their previous matchup vs. the Wizards, the Bucks’ defense struggled, giving up a field goal percentage of 58% leading to 129 points.

In their recent game, the Celtics’ offense concluded with 118 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 117.2 points per contest. The team’s top scorer is Jayson Tatum, who comes into today’s matchup with an average of 28.2, while Jaylen Brown also maintains a PPG average of 21.3 leading up to the game.

At present, the Celtics’ defense is ranked 3rd, allowing 106.6 points per game.

Opponents are hitting 49.6% of their two-point field goal attempts this season, and they’re also connecting on 34.7% of their three-point attempts.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 124 points per game while allowing 115. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• In their last five games at home, the Celtics have a straight up record of 3-2 while going 1-4 vs the spread. The team averaged 109 points per game in this stretch.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Bucks have a straight-up record of 2-8. Their record vs. the spread in these games was 2-7-1.
• Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Celtics have a good straight-up record, but their ATS mark is just 0-3.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Bucks and Celtics were at the front and center of all the off-season moves, with Damian Lillard to the Bucks getting a majority of the attention. However, the Celtics adding Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday makes them the team to beat, in my opinion. In what could eventually be an Eastern Conference Finals preview, I like Boston to take this one and to cover at -5.5.