Milwaukee at Oklahoma City Free Pick ATS 3/8/22

Milwaukee Bucks (40-25 SU, 29-36-0 ATS) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (20-44 SU, 38-22-4 ATS)

When: Tuesday March 08 2022, 08:00 PM (ET)

Where: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

TV: BSWI

Point Spread: MIL -14.5/OKL +14.5 (Opened MIL -14.5 at BetNow – They offer a 100% real cash bonus up to $1K! The best you’ll ever find!)

Total: 231.5 (Opened at 230.5)

Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -1347/Oklahoma City Thunder 787

Power Rating:

Probable Starting Lineups

Milwaukee Bucks PG Jrue Holiday, SG Jordan Nwora, SF Khris Middleton, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Bobby Portis

Oklahoma City Thunder PG Tre Mann, SG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, SF Aleksej Pokusevski, PF Darius Bazley, C Isaiah Roby Q

Key Injuries

Milwaukee Bucks
Grayson Allen: Hip (OUT)
Wesley Matthews: Hamstring (QUESTIONABLE)
George Hill: Neck (OUT)
Pat Connaughton: Finger (OUT)
Brook Lopez: Back (OUT)

Oklahoma City Thunder
Isaiah Roby: Back (QUESTIONABLE)
Derrick Favors: Back (QUESTIONABLE)
Kenrich Williams: Knee (OUT)
Ty Jerome: Hip (OUT)
Mike Muscala: Ankle (OUT)
Luguentz Dort: Shoulder (OUT)
Josh Giddey: Hip (OUT)
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl: Foot (OUT)

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Milwaukee Bucks in a Non-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 08:00 PM ET at the Paycom Center.

Recent Form

The Milwaukee Bucks come into this game with an overall record of 40-25, placing them 3rd in the Eastern Conference. So far, Milwaukee is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 17-13. Over their last five games, the Bucks have played well, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, Milwaukee is averaging 125.0 points per game, 11.0 points more than their season average of 114.0. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 110.0 points per contest. Even though Milwaukee has been picking up wins, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 117.0 points per game, up from the Bucks’ usual rate of 110.4. In the Milwaukee Bucks’ most recent game, Milwaukee took down Phoenix by a score of 132-122

The Oklahoma City Thunder come into this game with an overall record of 20-44, placing them 14th in the Western Conference. Throughout the season, Oklahoma City has struggled in their 32 home contests, sitting at 9-23. Over the Thunder’s last five games, they have picked up just 2 wins. During this stretch, Oklahoma City is averaging 112.0 points per game, 10.0 points more than their season average of 102.1. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 111.0 points per contest. A key reason for the Thunder’s recent struggles is a defensive unit giving up 123.0 points over their last five contests. This figure is up from their season average of 109.3. In the Oklahoma City Thunder’s most recent game, the team fell to Utah by a score of 116-103.

Individual Player Analysis

As Milwaukee travels to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Bucks’ leading scorer is Giannis Antetokounmpo. Through 54 games, Antetokounmpo is averaging 29 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 46.0% of his games. As Antetokounmpo gets set to take on the Thunder, he could be in line for a big game as Oklahoma City is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 51.72% of their games. This figure places them 22nd among NBA defenses. On the other side, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder in scoring, averaging 24 points across his 49 games. Throughout the season, Gilgeous-Alexander has outscored his season average in 51.0% of his outings. Given that Milwaukee’s defense has struggled to slow down their opponent’s top scorers, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should be in line for a big performance. So far, the Bucks have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 55.77% of their games, giving them a rank of 29th among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Milwaukee Bucks are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 18 of Milwaukee’s 30 games, leading to a winning percentage of 78%. So far, the Oklahoma City Thunder have played 43 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 43 times, by an average margin of -14.0 points.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Milwaukee Bucks and Oklahoma City Thunder have met up for 1 game. Milwaukee took game one by a score of 96-89.

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How the Public is Betting the Bucks vs Thunder

67% are betting the Bucks against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 231.0

Betting Trends Worth Noting

• Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
• Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
• Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The Milwaukee Bucks come into this matchup as the heavy favorite, as they are not only one of the best team’s in the NBA but are coming off a week in which they proved their elite status. In Milwaukee’s last three games, they took down the Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, and Phoenix Suns. However, in each of these contests, the team was down late and needed a comeback effort. This matchup with Oklahoma City feels like a classic trap game. Although I see the Bucks pulling out the win, look for the Thunder to cover the spread. Question: Did you know that you could be betting on games at -105 odds instead of -110? AND IT’S FREE! Start saving BIG bucks today by making the switch to reduced juice betting odds!