Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Play-In Game Spread Pick

Miami Heat (46-36 SU, 40-39 ATS) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (47-35 SU, 49-32 ATS)

When: Wednesday, April 17th, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Wells Fargo Center, PA, Philadelphia

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Mia +5.5/Phi -5.5 

Total: 207.5

Money Line: Miami Heat +175/-213

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Notable Injuries

Heat

• Josh Richardson (Out) Shoulder
• Terry Rozier (Out) Neck
• Duncan Robinson (Probable) Back

76ers

• Joel Embiid (Questionable) Knee
• Robert Covington (Out) Knee
• De’Anthony Melton (Out) Injury Recovery
• Kenyon Martin Jr. (Questionable) Toe

The Miami Heat (46-36) come into tonight’s matchup with a two-game win streak and are currently 8th in the Eastern Conference. They are 5.5-point underdogs against the Philadelphia 76ers (47-35), who have won eight straight and are 7th in the East.

This Eastern Conference matchup will tip-off at 7:00 ET and will be played at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. The game can be seen on ESPN.

Recent Form

Miami’s O/U record for the season is 35-47, and the over has hit in their last two games. Today’s line of 207.5 is lower than 77 of their previous games, and the average O/U line for their games is 220.7 points.

In the Eastern Conference, Miami is currently in 8th place with a record of 46-36. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 32-20 and 14-16 against the West.

On the road, the Heat are 24-17 this season and have covered the spread in five straight games. Their ATS record on the road is 24-14 compared to 16-25 at home.

Miami’s last game was a 118-103 win over the Raptors. They were favored by 16.5 points in that game and are favored by 5.5 points today. The O/U line for that game was 218.5.

As the underdog this season, Miami has a record of 11-23 and has gone 17-17 against the spread. On average, they have been outscored by 3.3 points per game as the underdog.

Philadelphia is looking to extend their winning streak to nine games and are favored by 5.5 points over the Heat. This season, the 76ers have been favored in 51 of their 82 games.

The 76ers’ ATS record this season is 49-32, and they have covered the spread in their last 10 games. At home, they are 24-16 ATS, and their average scoring margin vs. the spread is +4.9 points per game.

In the Eastern Conference, the 76ers are currently in 7th place with a record of 47-35. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 31-21 compared to 16-14 in non-conference games.

Philadelphia’s most recent win came against the Nets, where they won by a score of 107-86. The O/U line for that game was 214 points, and the 76ers were favored by 12.5. The teams combined to score 193 points.

This season, the average O/U line in the 76ers’ games is 226.9 points, and their games have averaged a combined 226.1 points. They have an over/under record of 42-40 this season.

The Historicals

The Heat have had the better record vs the spread over the last five games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 5 points per game. The over-under record in these same games is 3-2, with the teams combining for an average of 215 points per game.

Analysis

Miami comes into the game as one of the league’s worst-scoring teams, at 110.1 points per game. They are even worse on the road, at 108.1 points per contest. The Heat’s lack of scoring is due, in part, to their slow pace. They are 29th in the league, averaging 95.8 possessions per game.

Tyler Herro has averaged 21.8 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he shot 46.6% from the field. Across his last five games, Jimmy Butler has shot 55.6% from the field and 18.6 points per game. Butler is averaging five assists per game this season, compared to 4.5 for Herro. For the season, Herro and Butler are averaging 20.8 points per game.

At this time, the Heat’s defense is positioned 3rd in the NBA, permitting 108.4 points per game. The Heat defense is coming off a game in which they held the Raptors offense to just 52.9% shooting. Overall, they gave up 103 points to Toronto.

Joel Embiid has been carrying the 76ers offense of late, averaging 33 points per game over his last three games. In these games, he hit 53.4% of his shots from the field and 3.3 threes per game. His season three-point shooting percentage is 38.8%. Tyrese Maxey has averaged 28.2 points per game over his last four games while hitting 47.7% of his shots from the field. For the season, he has hit 37.3% of his threes.

Philadelphia is averaging 114.6 points per game this season, which is 15th in the league. Their home scoring average of 115.5 points per contest is 14th in the NBA. The team’s three-point shooting percentage of 36% is 19th in the league, and they are also 19th in three-point attempts.

Currently, the 76ers’ defense holds the 9th rank in the NBA, allowing 111.5 points per game. Inside the arc, the 76ers defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 54.3% and 35.3% from three-point territory.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 5-0 while averaging 115 points per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
• Philadelphia has played well in their previous three home games, going 3-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 119 points per game while allowing 109. The team also performed well vs. the spread at 3-0.
• The last three games that Miami was the underdog, they had an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 0-3 straight up.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the 76ers have a strong straight up record of 5-0. In addition, their ATS record was 5-0 in these scenarios.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

A season ago, the Heat also kicked off their playoff run in the play-in tournament. But tonight, they find themselves as +5.5 point underdogs and are up against a Philadelphia team that has no business being in the play in the tournament but dropped down the standings during Joel Embiid’s absence (check status). Look for the Sixers to not only win, but cover the spread in tonight’s Eastern Conference play in matchup.

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