Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 Pick

Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 33-50-2 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (58-24 SU, 42-35-6 ATS)

When: Wednesday, April 19th, 9:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, WI, Milwaukee

TV: NBA

Point Spread: Mia +6/Mil -6 (Did you know you can bet on games at -105 instead of -110 at BAS? Why pay more? It doesn’t make CENTS!)

Total: 219.5

Money Line: Miami Heat +200/-245

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Kyle Lowry (Questionable) Knee
• Tyler Herro (Out) Hand
• Nikola Jovic (Out) Back

Bucks

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Doubtful) Back
• Wesley Matthews (Out) Calf

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 17-24 and a win percentage of 41%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 33-50-2 vs the spread. In their matchup against Milwaukee, the Miami Heat have won 2 straight games and will look to push that mark to 3 in a row.

In their upcoming game, Miami will be looking to capitalize on their recent win over the Bucks. Jimmy Butler led the way for the Heat with 35 points. Despite being 9-point underdogs on the spread, the Heat were able to secure an ATS win.

Heading into the game, Milwaukee is 58-24 overall. When playing at home, Milwaukee has a mark of 32-9 and a win percentage of 78%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 42-35-6 vs. the spread. The Bucks need a win in today’s matchup vs Miami to avoid their 4th straight loss.

Milwaukee most recently lost to the Heat by a score of 130-117. The team high 33 points from Khris Middleton was not enough to come home with the win. The Bucks were 9-point favorites going into the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Heat picked up the win 130-117 win over the Bucks. Heading into the game, Miami was the 9.0-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. So far this season, the Heat have a record of 3-2 vs the Bucks. Through the last 5 head-to-head matchups, neither team has gotten a leg up on the spread, each sitting at 2-2-1. In addition, the games have been competitive, with an average of just 1 point per game separating the teams. Miami and Milwaukee averaged a combined 225 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

Analysis

This season, Miami is averaging just 109.5 points per game, which places them 32nd in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.2 possessions per game. Miami’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 34.4% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 34.8 3-point shots per game, placing them 20th in the NBA. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

As the Heat prepare for today’s game, Bam Adebayo is averaging 20.4 points per game. This season, Adebayo has a field goal percentage of 54.0%. Jimmy Butler leads the team at 22.9 points per game.

This season, Milwaukee is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 116.9 points per game. So far, the Bucks are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 100.7 possessions per game. The three-point shot has been a big part of Milwaukee’s offensive game plan, as they are ranked 1st in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 36.8% of their looks from outside. On defense, the Bucks are allowing an average of 112.13 points per game, placing them 19th in the league. So far, opposing teams are hitting 35.73% of their looks from deep vs. Milwaukee.

Heading into their matchup with the Heat, the Bucks will likely be without Giannis Antetokounmpo. This season, he is the team’s top scorer at 31.1. His absence means Jrue Holiday will be getting plenty of offensive opportunites. So far, he is averaging 19.3.

Betting Trends

• Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
• Bucks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Wednesday games.
• Bucks are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Call me nuts, but I think the Heat missing Tyler Herro hurts Miami more than the Bucks losing Antetokounmpo. Bobby Portis is no slouch and Lopez probably gets a few more minutes than usual which is a good thing. I believe Milwaukee was shellshocked and got derailed after their star player was lost. Furthermore, Miami shot 59.5% from the field and 60% from three-point range. That isn’t happening again. The Bucks will prepare accordingly and be more competitive in game 2. I’m laying the points with the Bucks at -6. Note: It’s a great day to learn about the benefits of reduced juice betting! It’ll save you tons of money and it’s FREE!