Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers Betting Preview | Jan 3, 2024

Miami Heat (19-14 SU, 15-17 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (17-17 SU, 15-19 ATS)

When: Wednesday, January 3rd, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Mia +6.5/LAL -6.5

Total: 226

Money Line: Miami Heat +214/-265

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Jimmy Butler (Out) Foot
• Josh Richardson (Questionable) Back
• Haywood Highsmith (Out) Concussion
• Caleb Martin (Doubtful) Ankle
• Dru Smith (Out) Knee

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Probable) Groin
• LeBron James (Questionable) Illness
• D’Angelo Russell (Doubtful) Tailbone
• Gabe Vincent (Out) Knee
• Rui Hachimura (Out) Calf
• Cam Reddish (Probable) Groin

Recent Form

Heading into today’s matchup vs. the Lakers, the Heat are 6.5-point underdogs on the road. So far, they are 19-14 and sit 4th in the Eastern Conference.

When playing teams outside of the East, Miami has gone 4-4 compared to 15-10 in conference games. Miami has also been dominant against their division, going 7-0.

On the road, the Heat have dropped two games and are 10-8 for the season. The team’s average scoring differential on the road is +1.6 points per game. Against the spread, they are 10-7 on the road.

This season, Miami games have finished with an average of 225 points per game. In their 33 games, 24 have had lower over/under lines than today’s line of 226 points. The Heat’s OU record for the season is 16-17.

The Heat will be looking to bounce back from a 121-104 loss to the Clippers. Miami went into that game as 7.5-point underdogs, picking up an ATS win.

It has been a tough stretch for the Lakers, who have dropped two straight games and three in a row against the spread. Los Angeles is hoping to turn things around today as 6.5-point favorites at home.

Overall, the Lakers are 10th in the West with a record of 17-17. Against other teams in the Western Conference, Los Angeles has gone 13-11 compared to 4-6 in non-conference games.

Los Angeles has put together a solid 11-4 record at home this season. On average, they are outscoring opponents by +8.2 points per game at home.

For the season, the Lakers have been favored in 20 of their 34 games and have a record of 14-6. Their average scoring margin as the favorite is currently +5.4 points per game.

When looking at the over/under results, the Lakers are 18-16 for the season. So far, 21 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 226 (average O/U line for the season is 229.3), and their over/under record in those games is 13-8.

The Historicals

In terms of betting vs the spread, the Lakers have gone 3-2, but the Heat actually have a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Miami has averaged 111 points per contest, while allowing 108. Over the course of these games, they averaged 219 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

Analysis

In their last game, the Heat came up short of their usual scoring output of 113 PPG. They put up 104 points and shot 42.2% from the field in their most recent game against the Clippers. Bam Adebayo is the team’s leading scorer with an average of 22 PPG, while Jimmy Butler is close behind at 21 PPG.

This season, the Heat defense has been impressive, holding the 9th position in the league while permitting an average of 112.0 points per contest. When it comes to defending inside the arc, the Heat squad is permitting opposing teams to shoot at a clip of 56.0% inside the arc, and they’re also giving up 37.3% from downtown.

At home, the Lakers are putting up 115.7 points per game, which ranks 19th in the NBA. Overall, they are 17th in the league, with an average of 114.2 points per game. When it comes to shooting, the Lakers are 7th in the league with a 48% field goal percentage. In terms of three-pointers, they are 28th in makes and 23rd in percentage.

So far this season, the Lakers have been a better defensive team at home, giving up 107.5 PPG at home compared to their overall season average of 114.7 points per game. Overall, they are the 16th-ranked defensive unit in the league. For the season, Los Angeles is ranked 30th in fewest fouls per game. The teams are averaging 19.7 free throws per game vs. the Lakers and have an overall field goal percentage of 46.7%.

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past three road matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 109 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• In their last five home games, Los Angeles has averaged 112 points per game while allowing 119. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-4 while going 3-2.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Heat have gone 5-5 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 4-6.
• As the betting favorite, the Lakers have an ATS mark of just 5-5 in their last ten games. Los Angeles posted a straight-up mark of 6-4 in these matchups.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

For this matchup, my favorite play is to grab the Lakers as the home favorites. Even with their lengthy injury report, the Heat are without Jimmy Butler, and the Lakers are the much better team at home. I like Los Angeles at -6.5.