Miami Heat vs. LA Lakers Odds & Predictions 1/4/23

Miami Heat (20-18 SU, 15-22-1 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (16-21 SU, 15-20-2 ATS)
When: Wednesday, January 4th, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Crypto.com Arena, CA, Los Angeles
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: MIA -4.5/ LAL +4.5
Total: 224.5
Money Line: Miami Heat -184/ +151

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Dewayne Dedmon (Questionable) Foot
• Udonis Haslem (Questionable) Achilles
• Duncan Robinson (Questionable) Hamstring
• Gabe Vincent (Probable) Knee
• Caleb Martin (Probable) Quad
• Ömer Yurtseven (Out) Ankle
• Nikola Jovic (Out) Back

Lakers

• Anthony Davis (Out) Foot
• LeBron James (Questionable) Ankle
• Russell Westbrook (Probable) Foot
• Lonnie Walker IV (Questionable) Tailbone

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 20-18 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 9-10 and a win percentage of 47%. Currently, the team is 7th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 15-22-1 vs. the spread. In their matchup against Los Angeles, the Miami Heat have won 2 straight games and will look to push that mark to 3 in a row.

In their preceding game, the Heat overpowered the Clippers, earning a 110-100 win as 1 point favorites. Bam Adebayo led the way for the Heat, putting up 31 points on 63.2% shooting. The Heat not only secured the victory but also covered the spread.

Heading into the game, Los Angeles is 16-21 overall. When playing at home, Los Angeles has a mark of 8-8 and a win percentage of 50%. Currently, the team is 13th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 15-20-2 vs. the spread. Los Angeles will look to stay hot in today’s game vs. Miami as they are the winners of 2 straight games.

After their win against the Hornets, Los Angeles will be looking to continue their momentum. LeBron James had a big game, scoring 43 points to help lead the team to victory. As 1-point underdogs on the spread, the Lakers were able to come home with an ATS win

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Heat picked up the 112-98 win over the Lakers. The Heat point margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as a nine point favorite. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. Over the last five head-to-head meetings, the Heat have averaged 109 points per game compared to 104 for Los Angeles. This has led to an ATS record of 3-2 for Miami. Over the course of these games, they averaged 213 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.

Analysis

This season, Miami is averaging just 109.0 points per game, which places them 30th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA, at just 97.3 possessions per game. The Heat have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 22nd in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 36.6 attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

As the Heat prepares for today’s game, Bam Adebayo is their leading scorer with an average of 21.5 points per game. This season, Adebayo has a field goal percentage of 53.9%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Tyler Herro.

This season, Los Angeles is among the league leaders in scoring, averaging 116.1 points per game. So far, the Lakers are also one of the more up-tempo teams in the league, sitting at 102.5 possessions per game. Los Angeles has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 26th in 3-point shooting percentage at 33.8%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 30.8 attempts per contest. The defense hasn’t been a strength for Los Angeles, as they currently allow 115.15 points per game. In terms of their 3-point defense, opposing team’s have hit 35.38% of their looks from deep, placing the Lakers 18th in the NBA.

Los Angeles will be dealing with some key injuries for today’s game. When looking at the injury report, the team’s second-leading scorer, Anthony Davis is already out. So far, he is averaging 27.4 for the team. In addition, LeBron James is questionable. This season, he leads the team in scoring at 29.0 points per contest.

Betting Trends

• The Heat are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The Heat are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road games.
• The Lakers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Lakers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

At -4.5, I still see there being good value in taking the Heat to cover. With Lebron James listed as questionable and the Lakers already being without Anthony Davis, I don’t see them mustering enough to put up a fight. I like Miami to cover.