Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Game 5 Prop Bet

Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 46-58-2 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (53-29 SU, 56-44-1 ATS)
When: Monday, June 12th, 8:30 PM (ET)
Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver
TV: ABC

Point Spread: Mia +9/Den -9
Total: 208.5
Money Line: Miami Heat +305/-385

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
• Tyler Herro (Out) Hand

Nuggets

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 17-24 and a win percentage of 41%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 46-58-2 vs. the spread. Miami travels to take on the Nuggets, hoping to avoid their 3rd straight loss.

Most recently, Miami lost to the Nuggets by a score of 108-95. Jimmy Butler and his 25 was not enough for the team to pull out a win as 3-point underdogs. The Heat also finished with an ATS loss in the game.

Heading into the game, Denver is 53-29 overall. When playing at home, Denver has a mark of 34-7 and a win percentage of 83%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Western Conference. So far, they are 56-44-1 vs. the spread. Denver will look to stay hot in today’s game vs. Miami as they are the winners of 2 straight games.

In their previous game, the Denver team emerged victorious against the Heat, winning by a margin of 3 points as predicted. Aaron Gordon shone for the Nuggets, scoring 27 points on a shooting percentage of 73.3%. The Nuggets not only won the game but also successfully covered the spread.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Nuggets picked up the 108-95 win over the Heat. The Nuggets margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as the 3.0-point favorite. So far this season, the Nuggets have a record of 5-1 vs the Heat. Across the previous 5 meetings between the teams, the Nuggets have an average scoring margin of +8 points per game, leading to an ATS mark of 4-1. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 2-3. Combined, they averaged 208 points in these games.

Analysis

This season, Miami is averaging just 109.5 points per game while averaging 96.2 possessions per game. Miami’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 34.4% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 34.8 3-point shots per game, placing them 17th in the NBA. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.6 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

The Heat will need a big game out of Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 22.9 points per game.

This season, the Nuggets’ offense is averaging 115.8 on an average of 97.9 possessions per game. Denver has been excellent from beyond the arc, sitting 3rd in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.9%. On defense, the Nuggets are allowing an average of 110.41 points per game, placing them 13th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

Nikola Jokic is the top scorer for Denver, averaging 24.5 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 63.2%. The team’s second leading scorer is Jamal Murray with an average of 20.0 points per game.

Betting Trends

• The Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The Heat are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Duncan Robinson OVER 8.5 points. (This bet can be found at Bovada Sportsbook). I believe he’s going to get some of Gabe Vincent’s minutes. Vincent has shot poorly the last couple of games (2/10 and 1/6), and Robinson is getting some of his minutes. I also believe Denver could win the game handily, which could free up a few extra ticks of the clock for the bench brigade.