Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets Game 2 Prop Bet

Miami Heat (44-38 SU, 45-56-2 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (53-29 SU, 54-43-1 ATS)
When: Sunday, June 4th, 8:00 PM (ET)
Where: Ball Arena, CO, Denver
TV: ABC

Point Spread: Mia +8.5/Den -8.5
Total: 215.5
Money Line: Miami Heat +288/-365

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
• Cody Zeller (Questionable) Foot
• Tyler Herro (Out) Hand
• Caleb Martin (Questionable) Illness

Nuggets

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 44-38 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 17-24 and a win percentage of 41%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 45-56-2 vs the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 1-4 in their past 5 games and 2-3 ATS. Over their past 10 games, they are 5-5 SU and 5-5 ATS.

In their most recent game, Miami was unable to come away with a victory against the Nuggets, losing by a score of 104-93. Despite Bam Adebayo leading the team with 26 points, the Heat were unable to overcome their status as 9-point underdogs. The Heat also ended up with an ATS loss in the game.

Heading into the game, Denver is 53-29 overall. When playing at home, Denver has a mark of 34-7 and a win percent of 83%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Western Conference. So far, they are 54-43-1 vs the spread. Denver will look to stay hot in today’s game vs Miami as they are the winners of 7 straight games.

In their previous game, the Denver team emerged victorious against the Heat, winning by a margin of 9 points as predicted. Nikola Jokic was hot for the Nuggets, scoring 27 points on a shooting percentage of 66.7%. The Nuggets not only won the game but also successfully covered the spread.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Nuggets picked up the 104-93 win over the Heat. The Nuggets’ margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 9.0 point favorite. So far this season, the Nuggets have a record of 3-0 vs the Heat. Over the last 5 head to head meetings, the Nuggets have averaged 114 points per game compared to 105 for Miami. This has led to an ATS record of 5-0 for Denver. The over-under record in these same games is 4-1, with the teams combining for an average of 219 points per game.

Analysis

This season, Miami is averaging 109.5 points per game while hitting just 34.4% of their looks from deep and averaging 96.2 possessions per game. On average, the team gets up 34.8 3-point shots per game, placing them 17th in the NBA. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.6 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

The team will be looking for a big game from their leading scorer Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 22.9 points per game.

This season, the Nuggets’ offense is averaging 115.8 points per game, which is 15th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Denver has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.9 possessions per game. Overall, they are 3rd in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.9% on an average of 31.2 attempts per contest. On defense, the Nuggets are allowing an average of 110.4 points per game, placing them 14th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

Going into today’s game, Nikola Jokic is the leading scorer for the Denver team, with an average of 24.5 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 63.2%. The team’s second top scorer is Jamal Murray, who is averaging 20.0 points per game.

Betting Trends

• The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NBA Championship games.
• Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The Nuggets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.
• Denver is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

I’m going right back to my Game 1 bet. I like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to score OVER 9.5 points.